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    • Tropical Storm Patty could form next week; NHC tracks 2 tropical waves
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    Tropical Storm Patty could form next week; NHC tracks 2 tropical waves

    Vaseline Posted on

    With the National Hurricane Center no longer monitoring Tropical Storm Oscar in the Atlantic Ocean and no other storms on the horizon, it appears the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season may be coming to an end before it officially concludes on November 30.

    Unfortunately, that’s likely not the case, as AccuWeather predicts that a system potentially capable of becoming Tropical Storm Patty is just a week away.

    “We suspect there will be another attempt to produce a tropical depression or tropical storm in the western Caribbean by the middle of next week,” said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist. “As a result, we have issued an advanced risk development zone.”

    Here’s the latest tropical storm news.

    A system could form next week that could produce Tropical Storm Patty

    AccuWeather suspects that based on current conditions in the Caribbean Sea and historical data, a new system capable of spawning a tropical depression or tropical storm could develop by the middle of next week.

    Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are starting to return to average, but remain warm overall. Meanwhile, the Atlantic Ocean continues to experience deep ocean warmth over key developing areas that are well above historical averages, according to AccuWeather.

    Warm water temperatures combined with low wind shear that could otherwise hinder tropical development could only fuel it.

    AccuWeather warns that another major storm or gyre could form near the western Caribbean, where Hurricanes Helene and Milton originated. However, any potential development would be slow and resemble Hurricane Oscar and Tropical Storm Nadine.

    Would Tropical Storm Patty impact Florida?

    There isn’t enough information for meteorologists to say one way or the other. However, current conditions in the area and historical records can give them a glimpse of what could happen.

    Tropical storms that develop late in the Atlantic hurricane season tend to push into Central America, like Nadine, or track north-northeast toward Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas, according to AccuWeather.

    To determine the path that Tropical Storm Patty might take, it would be necessary to know where the storm is forming, its intensity and other non-tropical features in the area that would influence its movement.

    The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two tropical waves

    The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two tropical waves, one in the central Atlantic Ocean and the other in the eastern Caribbean.

    The central Atlantic tropical wave has a magnitude of nearly 44 W from 15 N southward, and is moving westward at a speed of about 15 knots. The tropical wave is categorized as a monsoon trough.

    Monsoon troughs play a key role in the formation of monsoon rains, usually over land. It is a vast area of ​​low atmospheric pressure typically found along a region known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where the winds of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres meet.

    In the Pacific Ocean, monsoon troughs have a significant influence on the formation of tropical cyclones, but they play a lesser role in the western Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    The eastern Caribbean tropical wave is almost 62W. It is moving westwards at a speed of 10 to 15 knots and is currently producing showers over the northern Leeward Islands.

    When is the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Countdown clock: when does hurricane season end?

    Vaseline
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