FOR THE For the first time since August, Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris The Economist‘s statistical model of the US presidential election. Our latest forecast gives Trump a 53% chance of returning to the White House, up seven percentage points over the past week (see chart). While the race remains more or less a coin toss, it is now somewhat weighted toward Trump. The shift in our model reflects a steady narrowing of Ms. Harris’ lead in national polls over the past month. State-specific polls released this past week confirm that Trump’s position has strengthened somewhat in the plausibly decisive states.