WASHINGTON (AP) — If the presidential election depended on abortion or climate change, Kamala Harris might feel pretty comfortable about her chances on November 5based on the polls. The Democratic candidate is also competitive with Republican Donald Trump in economic terms.

But Harris knows this is an extremely tight race — and that it could well serve as a test of how much policy matters to voters, and which policies ultimately matter most.

The vice president leads Trump on abortion, election integrity, climate change, middle-class taxes and natural disaster management, according to the latest research from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs.

She is essentially divided with Trump on several specific economic issues, such as jobs and the cost of groceries and gasoline. The two are basically equally good when it comes to crime and the situation in the Middle East. Trump has a slight advantage over Harris on tariffs, and a larger advantage on immigration.

Despite Harris’ lead on a number of issues, her campaign still faces many concerns about a historically close race. It’s a sign that policy can matter, but it doesn’t always trump issues like personality, party political loyalties or even demographic factors that shape society. identity of voters.

The latest polls mark something of a shift from 2020, when the pandemic was the top priority for many voters. But that turns out to be the case Trump can no longer claim the economy as a relative strength for his candidacy, as was the case when President Joe Biden was still in the race. How voters feel about the economy could be decisive; a September AP-NORC poll found this was the top issue for many voters.

The Harris campaign has concluded from its own polling that the Democratic candidate is competitive with Trump on the economy, seeing that as a reflection of the way it emphasizes the middle class in its speeches and ads.

“She is significantly outperforming Trump when it comes to understanding the needs of middle-class and working families,” said Molly Murphy, a Harris pollster. “Voters tend to trust that if you talk about something relentlessly, you care about it.”

Xiaowen Xu, a psychologist at the College of William & Mary, emphasized that many factors play a role in understanding people’s political preferences.

“Some will put more emphasis on policy, while others will use it as a kind of ‘checkbox,’” Xu said. “And factors such as personality differences, political identity, political preference, media consumption… can all contribute to the way policy-related information is digested.”

Biden experienced this disconnect firsthand before leaving the race. His aides pointed to data suggesting he has surpassed Trump on policy specs but still fares poorly on the economy because of the impact of the 2022 inflation spike and questions about his age. The policy benefit was insufficient to increase his popularity.

Trump has retained his persona as a real estate mogul. He claimed at a recent round table that Harris’ time as district attorney in San Francisco devastated the city and that he understands this because “I own real estate there.” While Trump said inflation was bad, he also said illegal border crossings were a bigger problem than the economy.

Trump had a 45% to 37% lead on immigration in October polls, roughly in line with his lead in September and August polls. And it’s an issue that was especially important to Republican voters during their primaries earlier this year, with Trump promising mass deportations of immigrants without authorized status.

“Americans trust President Trump to get our economy back on track because he is a businessman with a proven track record of economic success from his first term in the White House,” said National Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt of the Trump campaign.

Trump has gone after Harris on several issues, including her 2019 call to ban fracking (which she has since rejected) and her willingness that same year to cut funding for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (she has since called for more funding for border security). He has also attacked her support for transgender rights and the meandering answers she has sometimes given to interview questions.

“I think she has reduced a lot of the advantages that Trump had earlier this year, but it seems like some of the attacks on her are taking their toll,” said Patrick Ruffini, a Republican strategist who says persuadable voters still appear to favor to Trump. on issues such as the economy and immigration.

Ruffini noted that Harris and her Democratic surrogates are increasingly focusing on Trump’s own weaknesses, such as claims by former aides that he is a fascist, his sometimes verbose speeches and the limits of his campaign schedule. That suggests Harris knows that attacking Trump has a greater benefit than advancing policy.

“What we’re seeing in the latter stages of the Harris campaign is that they’re trying to highlight Trump’s instability,” he said.

Yet Harris advocates for the economy and pushes multiple messages at once. Her campaign on Wednesday highlighted a letter signed by 23 Nobel Prize economists, who said her policies would be “far superior” to Trump’s ideas. Her campaign has also labeled its pricing plans a “national sales tax.”

Ads from groups supporting Harris featured voters who cast aside Trump because they felt he cared more tax cuts for billionaires than the middle class. Other advertisements to follow Trump’s tariffs for increasing spending on ordinary people, messages all designed to suggest the former president is prioritizing himself.

The Democratic nominee has called for $25,000 in down payments for first-time homebuyers, expanded tax breaks for parents, new benefits to encourage more startups, and doubling the number of registered apprenticeships to boost blue-collar employment. Her campaign has proposed high taxes on corporations and the wealthy to cover the costs of her programs without widening projected budget deficits.

“These things do have resonance,” said Steven Durlauf, an economist at the University of Chicago. “There are really big differences between the candidates.”