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Tesla shares rise as analysts react to Musk’s third-quarter earnings forecasts
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Tesla shares rise as analysts react to Musk’s third-quarter earnings forecasts

CANNES, FRANCE – JUNE 19: Elon Musk attends the session ‘Exploring the New Frontiers of Innovation: Mark Read in Conversation with Elon Musk’ during the Cannes Lions International Festival Of Creativity 2024 – Day Three on June 19, 2024 in Cannes, France. (Photo by Marc Piasecki/Getty Images)

Marc Piasecki | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

Tesla Shares rose about 19% Thursday morning, putting the stock on track for its best day in more than three years following the company’s better-than-expected earnings report.

The company reported revenue of $25.18 billion late Wednesday, which was just below analyst expectations of $25.37 billion but up 8% from a year earlier. Tesla reported adjusted earnings per share of 72 cents, higher than the average analyst estimate of 58 cents.

“We expect this surprise profit margin to trigger a strong positive reaction in Tesla shares on Thursday, given the extent to which investors have become conditioned to the company’s earnings misses,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note.

Tesla’s third-quarter profit margins were boosted by $739 million in revenue from automotive regulatory credits, which JPMorgan analysts say is a “potentially unsustainable driver” of cash flow performance going forward.

Automakers are required to obtain a certain number of regulatory credits each year, and if they cannot meet the target, they can purchase credits from other companies. Tesla has excess credits because it only makes electric vehicles.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said during an earnings call Wednesday that his “best guess” is that “automotive growth” will be 20% to 30% next year, citing “cheaper vehicles” and the “advent of autonomy.” Analysts polled by FactSet expected shipment growth of about 15% by 2025.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley who recommended buying the stock called Musk’s 2025 vehicle delivery growth forecast a “maybe.” They put their estimate at 14%.

It “clearly depends on the company’s ability to improve affordability through the introduction of lower-priced (next-gen) models, financing offerings and enhanced features,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a note Thursday.

With Tesla’s rally on Thursday, the stock has pared its losses for the year and is now up almost 2%, although still lagging the Nasdaq’s 22% gain.

— CNBC’s Lora Kolodny contributed to this report.

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