ROCHESTER, NY — It’s this time of year when we start thinking about what kind of winter season is coming to Western New York. In the short term, snow is already starting to move west through the Rocky Mountains, Alaska and Canada’s Yukon.

It’s important to note that none of this snow is headed toward Rochester, at least for now. Looking back at our seasonal snowfall history, the Rochester Airport has a record of five consecutive winter seasons with below-average snowfall. Last season we even managed to measure only half of the usual snow.

What tool can we use to predict the coming winter? It’s still too early in the season to give any insight into the weather forecasts, but perhaps we could use some weather folklore. I think of the woolly caterpillar. The story goes: the blacker the stripes, the harsher or more severe you can expect for the coming winter season. However, the more brown discoloration brings a greater chance of a mild winter. I doubt there is any real scientific basis for this, but the cute little critters are fun to look at. There were a few small, non-scientific studies on this issue years ago, but scientists have since discounted any real predictive power. It seems more logical that instead of looking ahead to the future winter season, the stripes could be more of a reflection of the past winter.

As we get closer to winter, look for more specific meteorological outlooks from News 10NBC First Alert meteorologists with a modest forecast for December, January and February.