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    • Latest research on Harris vs. Trump
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    Latest research on Harris vs. Trump

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    As the end of the presidential election draws closer, polls continue to show that Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are locked in an incredibly close race as early voting rolls around.

    The latest polls released Friday morning showed Harris with a narrow lead in ongoing coverage of Tipp, while an Emerson College Polling survey also showed a slight advantage for the vice president. Meanwhile, the latest poll from the New York Times and Siena College showed the vote was tied.

    The latest numbers come as each candidate travels to key battleground states across the US to make their final pitches to voters.

    Here’s what you need to know about the presidential election on Friday, October 25:

    Register to vote: Text with USA TODAY’s elections team.

    Election Updates: Latest news from the campaign trail for Trump, Harris; who is leading in the polls

    Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the latest NYT/Siena poll

    The latest New York Times and Siena College poll from Friday shows Trump and Harris tied for the popular vote at 48% to 48%.

    The survey of 2,516 likely voters nationwide was conducted Oct. 20 to 23, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

    The latest poll shows the race has become even closer since the previous Times/Siena College poll in early October, which showed Harris with a three-point lead over Trump, though the change is within the margin of error.

    “A high-profile debate, two attempts on (Trump’s) life, dozens of rallies in seven battleground states and hundreds of millions spent on advertising have seemingly done little to change the trajectory of the race,” the Times said.

    Harris leads New Hampshire, but falls behind Biden

    Harris leads Trump by three percentage points among New Hampshire voters in a new poll released Friday by Emerson College Polling.

    The poll of 915 voters showed Harris leading 50% to 47% among likely voters less than two weeks before the Nov. 5 election. Taking undecided voters into account, Harris’ overall support in New Hampshire rises to 51%, according to the poll.

    The poll showed Harris ahead with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points. The poll took place from Monday to Wednesday.

    The new poll showed that 34% of respondents saw the economy as the most important issue in the upcoming presidential elections. Another 26% of respondents cited housing affordability as the biggest problem, while 10% cited threats to democracy.

    Democrats have dominated New Hampshire in the recent presidential election, but Harris’ support among voters is falling from what President Joe Biden had in 2020 when he won the state with 52.8% of the vote.

    According to RealClear Polling, Hillary Clinton narrowly won the state against Trump in 2016, with 46.8% of the vote to his 46.5%.

    The new Emerson poll found that a majority of New Hampshire voters (53%) have a favorable view of Harris, while 47% have an unfavorable view of the vice president. Trump was found to have a 47% favorability rating in the state, with 53% of respondents having an unfavorable view of him.

    “Harris’s margin among women is similar to Biden’s in 2020 — however, male voters have moved about two points toward Trump,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Additionally, Harris is underperforming among independent voters under Biden’s 2020 support, breaking for Harris by 13 points but for Biden by about double that number.”

    Harris 50%, Trump 47% in Tipp’s ongoing poll

    Democratic presidential candidate Harris leads Republican presidential candidate Trump by three percentage points in Tipp’s Tracking Poll as of Friday morning.

    The poll of 1,260 likely voters, conducted between October 21 and 23, shows Harris leading 50% to 47% with a margin of error of 2.8%.

    According to Tipp, both candidates have hovered within a three-point range over the past 10 days.

    “This stable but small margin indicates a volatile electorate, where every percentage point matters,” Tipp said.

    Bloomberg Swing State Polls show that the candidates are tied

    The candidates are statistically tied among likely voters in seven swing states, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll conducted Wednesday evening.

    Harris barely leads Trump 49.1% to 48.5% in all swing states, within the margin of error of one percentage point. The data comes from a survey of 5,308 registered voters from Oct. 16 to 20 in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

    “Harris is outperforming her rival in the poll on a number of personal traits that could help her with disaffected Republicans. When asked which candidate could best be described as mentally fit, honest and compassionate, voters in the swing state likely chose Harris by wide margins,” Bloomberg reported. , countered by findings that more voters experience Trump as patriotic and a strong leader.

    The historic gender divide defines Harris versus Trump

    The gender gap is widening and deepening, according to recent opinion polls.

    In the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll, women backed Harris decisively, 53% to 36%. That mirrors men’s overwhelming support for Trump, 53% to 37%. If these margins hold until Election Day, this would be the largest disparity since a gender gap emerged more than four decades ago in 1980.

    Both men and women say the economy and inflation are the most important issues this year, although men rank this higher: 34% compared to 26% for women.

    After that, women give abortion and women’s rights a strong second place, at 17%. Men rank abortion and women’s rights a distant seventh, mentioned by only 2%.

    Things to keep in mind when voting

    The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the research results being representative of the entire population.

    When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to the Pew Research Center.

    Pew also found that the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, significantly underestimating Trump’s performance.

    This article has been updated with new information.

    Contributors: Susan Page, Maya Marchel Hoff, Sudiksha Kochi, USA TODAY

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