JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – We are just a few days away from the last month of hurricane season, which ends on November 30th. However, there is a constant chance of a disturbance in the tropics during the first week of November.

Risk of disruption

According to the National Hurricane Center, a disturbance is currently occurring in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. There is a 40% chance that the system will be developed in the next seven days.

Long-term models showed that a disturbance could occur, but the direction and location were inconsistent, which is normal for long-term forecasts, especially for hurricanes and tropical storms.

An area of ​​low pressure will continue to develop slowly, but will likely become a tropical depression.

Too early to say, but something to think about

Long-term weather models are inconsistent.

However, the widely used GFS model shows the disruption continuing to organize and falling below 1000 mb by the end of the week.

It could then potentially move through the Caribbean Sea to the area of ​​Cuba and Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic). It could become a hurricane this weekend.

This could change

According to the potential long-term forecast, the storm is moving towards the area of ​​the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. It was then allowed to move northwest toward Florida, but did not make landfall until moving north along the Gulf Stream.

For now, Floridians and Georgians should remember that this observation will likely change within the next seven days. However, it is a friendly reminder that hurricane season is active and certainly not over yet.