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    • Possible track for Tropical Storm Patty
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    Possible track for Tropical Storm Patty

    Vaseline Posted on

    Cheryl McCloud
    | USA TODAY NETWORK -Florida

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    The silent time is over in the tropics.

    The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a broad area of ​​low pressure in the Caribbean Sea that could become a tropical depression late this week or this weekend.

    AccuWeather forecasters have been warning of the chance of a tropical depression or storm in the western Caribbean since last week and currently give the system a high chance of developing between October 31 and November 4.

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    There is also another area with potential for development this weekend or early next week. This is located in eastern and southeastern Florida.

    The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Patty and Rafael.

    Since 1851, three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida in November, leaving residents emotionally and physically exhausted. The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.

    “We are tired because the 2024 hurricane season has hit us harder than anyone in a generation,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida-based meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

    Here is the latest advice from the NHC as of Monday, October 28 at 2 p.m.:

    Tropical Storm Patty? Will Florida or Palm Beach County experience another storm or hurricane this season?

    Two conditions that have played a role during this hurricane season could lead to a new depression or tropical storm: little wind shear and very warm water.

    “If there’s little wind shear, which we expect, I think we’re going to have a tropical depression or storm,” said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather’s chief meteorologist.

    Even a hurricane is possible, under the right conditions, AccuWeather Alex DaSilva, chief hurricane expert, said in a telephone interview Monday morning.

    ➤ Tropical storm? Hurricane?! It can be done in early November. What Florida residents need to know

    Yet another factor this time is the Central American Gyre, which is more active at the beginning and end of the season. A gyre is an area of ​​slowly rotating air that can aid the development of tropical systems.

    “Although tropical storms that form from the gyre sometimes take several days to become better organized, development can sometimes increase rapidly once it begins,” AccuWeather said.

    “Storms in the Caribbean tend to move north or northeast in November. This means residents and visitors along the southeast coast will need to keep a close eye on development,” DaSilva warned.

    November brings tropical development closer to Florida, USA

    While months earlier in the Atlantic hurricane season tropical waves typically emerge off the African coast, move across the Atlantic Ocean and give people plenty of notice, that is not the case for the final month of the season.

    “As we approach early November, the focus for tropical development shifts closer to the United States. Typically, the areas of focus late in the season are the Caribbean and off the southeast coast,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s chief hurricane expert.

    Another area to watch is southeast of Florida, USA

    This area currently has a low development potential. According to AccuWeather, it could form at the end of a cold front that will move off the East Coast late this week.

    “If an area of ​​low pressure forms that is not attached to the front, the development potential would increase.”

    A tropical depression could form in the Caribbean late this week

    A broad low-pressure area is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea within a few days.

    Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or weekend as the system begins to drift northward or northeastward toward the central Caribbean Sea.

    • Probability of formation during 48 hours: low, almost 0 percent.
    • Formation chance during 7 days: average, 40 percent.

    What else is there and how likely are they to get stronger?

    The National Hurricane Center also monitors four tropical waves:

    • East Atlantic Ocean: A low amplitude tropical wave west of Cape Verde is along 35 W, south of 15 N, moving westward at a speed of 18 to 27 km/h.
    • East of the Leeward Islands: A tropical wave is located along 52W, south of 17N, moving westward at a speed of 18 to 27 km/h.
    • Eastern Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave is moving over the eastern Caribbean. The axis runs along 68W and extends south into western Venezuela.
    • Southwestern Caribbean: A new tropical wave has reached the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua. The axis is along 84W, south of 18N.

    Who is likely to be affected?

    Regardless of the development, widespread rain showers are expected across much of the Caribbean this week, AccuWeather said. Life-threatening mudslides and flash floods could result even in the unlikely event that a tropical depression or tropical storm does not develop.

    Forecasters urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and always be prepared.

    Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida

    Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS

    When is the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Countdown clock: when does hurricane season end?

    Interactive map: hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

    What’s next?

    We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download the app from your local site to ensure you’re always up to date with the news. And look here for our special subscription offers.

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