• The big Senate race between Colin Allred and Ted Cruz could reveal a lot about Texas’ identity.
• The Lone Star State has been a bastion of the Republican Party for decades, but voting shifts are changing that dynamic.
• BI spoke with Colin Allred in Houston about the race and how he views Cruz’s tenure.

For decades, Democrats have tried to regain their former glory in Texas, but have repeatedly fallen short.

The party hasn’t won a statewide race in the Lone Star State since 1994, largely robbing the party of the kind of bench Republicans have cultivated for years through their dominance in state government.

So when Rep. Colin Allred — a three-term lawmaker who represents the 32nd Congressional District in the Dallas area — entered this year’s Senate contest against two-term Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, many Democrats believed his bipartisan credentials would strengthen his candidate .

Allred, 41, believes he can be a change agent for Texas. And with less than a week to go before the election, he remains locked in a competitive battle with the 53-year-old Cruz.

A New York Times/Siena College poll in late October showed Cruz with a four-point lead over Allred (50% to 46%) among likely voters, but in the same poll, former President Donald Trump led Vice President Kamala Harris by ten points (52% to 42%). And other polls on the race, including those from Marist College, Morning Consult and the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs, all showed Cruz with a single-digit lead.

The race’s competitiveness prompted the Senate Majority PAC — the Democratic political action committee affiliated with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York — to pour $5 million into the contest in recent days, as the Texas race is now widely seen as the best of the lot. chance to turn over a red chair this year. In total, Allred has raised more than $80 million for the Senate race, according to his campaign.

But one important fact remains: Allred will have to overcome the state’s Republican tilt to oust Cruz.

Reproductive rights and the economy

I spoke with Allred before a recent block walk kickoff event in Houston, where the former NFL player and civil rights attorney laid out his case against Cruz’s reelection bid.

But something important stood out during our conversation.

In the past, Red State Democrats have often shied away from speaking out too forcefully on reproductive rights. However, after Roe v. Wade was overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court, along with the passage of Texas’ strict abortion ban, Allred denounced “extremism” that he said would have serious consequences for the economy.

In the Times/Siena poll, Texas voters were most likely to rank the economy as their most important issue, with 27% of respondents expressing this view. (The second- and third-placed issues were immigration and abortion, with 15% support for each issue.)

“The individual stories of people who were denied care for miscarriage or refused care when pregnancies were not viable and had to leave the state are horrific,” Allred told me after speaking at a meeting focused on reproductive rights led by Harris , which also featured a performance by Beyoncé. “I know many of these women who have come forward. It’s personal. It also affects every other aspect of life in Texas, from our medical schools to our universities to our business climate.”

The election map

In 2018, then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke crisscrossed Texas during his Senate campaign, visiting all 254 of the state’s counties.

While Cruz ultimately won, he defeated O’Rourke by just 2.6 percentage points, or about 215,000 votes out of more than 8.3 million votes cast.

O’Rourke’s campaign that year worked to energize Democratic voters — with a focus on young and progressive voters — and his town hall events became a signature part of his campaign.

Allred’s campaign approach is a bit different than that of O’Rourke, who represented the El Paso region in Congress from 2013 to 2019. He’s also trying to maximize Democratic turnout, but he’s made serious connections with independents and Republicans to play a major role. part of his moderate campaign.

“I have a reputation for being the most bipartisan Texan in Congress,” he told me during our conversation.

It’s the kind of ethos Allred is taking with him on his campaign trail through Texas, a behemoth of a state with huge cities and dozens of mid-sized and smaller towns and villages in between. It can take about thirteen hours to drive through Texas from east to west.

“This is a huge state, and what happens in one part of the state is not always known in the other part of the state,” Allred told me, adding of his experience: “I don’t meet any Texans who looking for a handout, but I come across Texans looking for someone who will be on their side.”

Democrats in Texas are already performing strongly in cities like Austin, Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. But in the Trump era, Democrats have also increasingly won over suburban voters, a phenomenon that has helped the party immensely in other Sun Belt states such as Arizona and Georgia. And if Allred wants to beat Cruz, he’ll have to put up extremely strong numbers with suburban voters across the board.

Mark P. Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University, told me in an interview that Cruz is in a more difficult position compared to other Republicans in Texas because he lacks substantial crossover support. Republicans have for decades asserted their political power in the state based on their strong support from party loyalists and conservative-leaning independents.

But Cruz, a former Republican Party presidential candidate, has left a polarizing profile both in Texas and on the national stage.

“He doesn’t have much appeal to the kind of soft Republicans, independents and moderate to conservative Democrats in the same way that Governor Greg Abbott and Senator John Cornyn do,” Jones said. “And it’s not a large amount, but he starts at a disadvantage because he has to win virtually all the Republican votes and make sure that Republicans turn out.”

Cruz ‘too small’ for Texas

During his campaign, Allred has focused on Cruz’s infamous 2021 trip to Cancun, Mexico, which took place while many Texans were without power due to a severe winter storm.

During our conversation, Allred portrayed Cruz as lacking a broader vision for one of the nation’s fastest-growing states, now home to more than 30 million residents.

Business Insider has contacted the Cruz campaign for comment.

“Texas is incredibly diverse and dynamic, but we are ruled by extremists who I believe have jeopardized all the positive aspects of our state,” Allred told me. “Ted Cruz in particular is someone who I think is just too small for Texas. His vision is too small for us. And for me, it’s kind of the opposite of the Texas that I know.”

Allred, who would be the first Black senator from Texas if he were to defeat Cruz, also spoke about the difficulties of change in a state where Republicans have long had a tight grip on power.

“When you have a one-party state for so long, you can get the impression that nothing can be changed,” Allred told me. “There is always the feeling that change needs to happen. But can we break through that?”