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Early voting: One week after Election Day, pre-election voters look different than they did four years ago
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Early voting: One week after Election Day, pre-election voters look different than they did four years ago



CNN

With one week until Election Day, more than 48 million ballots have been cast in 47 states and the District of Columbia.

This is evident from data collected by CNN, Edison Research and Catalist. a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofits, including insights into who is voting before November.

So far, pre-election voting across the country is down significantly from four years ago, when record numbers of voters turned out before Election Day during the Covid-19 pandemic. The total from the primaries amounts to over 30% of the approximately 158 million votes cast for president in 2020.

In the states where Catalist has comparable data, early voters so far are older, slightly more likely to be white and more likely to be Republican than they were four years ago. These trends, to the extent data are available, generally hold true in the seven states likely to decide the election.

Early voting trends can’t predict the outcome of an election, but they can provide clues about who will vote — at least so far.

So far, voters ages 65 and older in 39 states where Catalist has data for both years make up 44% of all returned ballots, up 9 percentage points from this point in 2020. Voters ages 30 to 39 have made up 9% of the early ballots cast. , down from 12% in 2020. About 75% of voters in those states are white, up slightly from 73% at this point four years ago. The share of ballots cast by Black voters has not changed, but Latino and Asian voters make up a slightly smaller share of the early-voting electorate.

Early voting in Georgia and North Carolina

Although voter turnout is generally low, Georgia is an outlier. Joe Biden became the first Democrat since Bill Clinton to capture the state, winning it four years ago by about 11,000 votes. Compared to the same point in 2020, early election turnout is about the same — down just 1%, according to Catalist data.

Although far fewer voters have voted by mail in Georgia, in-person early voting has already surpassed 2020 levels. Overall, about 1.3 million Georgians voted by mail in 2020, but this year, with the deadline to request ballots having already passed, only 341,000 mail-in ballots have been requested in the state and only 187,000 have been returned, according to state data . By comparison, nearly 2.7 million early in-person ballots were cast in 2020, but so far this year that number is already more than 2.9 million, with four days of early voting remaining.

In North Carolina, early voting fell 10% four years ago. But more voters are casting their ballots in person — about 312,000 more voters voted in person than four years ago, a shift from the pandemic when many voters cast ballots by mail. As of October 29, approximately 166,000 mail-in ballots have been cast, which would represent only 20% of mail-in ballots at this point in 2020.

In both states, it has become more difficult to vote by mail since 2020.

In Georgia, voters who wish to vote by mail are now required to provide additional identification. The state has also shortened the period in which voters can submit their ballots and vote by mail and reduced the number of drop boxes available.

In North Carolina, voters require two witness signatures on their ballots, while the state had reduced that to one in 2020. The state also now won’t accept mail-in ballots that arrive after Election Day, even if they are postmarked before the polls close.

Since former President Donald Trump led the Republican Party, many Republicans have strongly preferred to vote on Election Day, while Democrats across the country have shown a preference for casting their votes in advance.

CNN’s latest national poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris with a wide lead among voters who said they had already cast their ballots, despite a tie among likely voters overall.

But the Trump campaign has stepped up efforts this year to encourage Republicans to vote early and by mail, a major shift from messaging to voting before the 2020 election.

Republicans represent 35% of early votes in the 27 states where Catalist has comparable data, up from 29% at the same time in 2020. Democrats, who made up 45% of early votes at this point in 2020, account for 39% of now-cast primary election ballots.

In North Carolina, Republicans account for 34% of the pre-election vote, up 4 percentage points from this point in 2020. Democrats in the state make up less of the share so far with 33% of the pre-election vote, 5 percentage points less than four years ago.

There is also a clear partisan divide in how people vote early in North Carolina. While 35% of early in-person voters so far have been Republicans and 33% Democrats, 27% of mail-in voters have been Republicans and 36% Democrats.

In Arizona, another key state, Republicans represent 42% of the vote, up 6 percentage points from this time in 2020. Democrats have fallen to 35% of the vote so far, down from 39% four years ago . Well over a million early and postal votes have been cast.

The story is similar in Nevada, where about 697,000 ballots have been cast. Republicans there have increased their share by 3 percentage points to 39% now compared to four years ago, while Democrats have reduced their share from 40% at this point in 2020 to 35% now.

There is also a partisan split by method in Nevada, where 41% of mail-in voters so far are Democrats and 31% are Republicans, while 49% of in-person voters so far are Republicans and 27% are Democrats.

And in Pennsylvania, the state that has seen the most ad spending and attention from the presidential campaigns, Republicans represent 31% of early votes, up from 21% in 2020. Democrats currently made up 69% of the primary vote. to vote. 2020; in 2024 they will account for 58%.

Key battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia don’t have data by party affiliation, but much can be learned by looking at the makeup of voters before the election among different voter demographics, such as race and gender groups.

In Michigan, where more than 1.9 million primary votes have been cast, white voters have cast 84% of the ballots for which Catalist has data so far, while black voters have cast 11%. This distribution is very similar to what it was at this point in 2020.

By gender, women make up 56% of Michigan voters so far, the same share as at this point in 2020.

The numbers tell a slightly different story in Georgia, where the share of votes cast among white voters has risen to 64% currently, compared to 62% in 2020. Black voters have reduced their share of the vote to 29%, compared by 31% at this point four years ago. The shares among Asian and Latino voters remain the same as in 2020, at 3% each.

In Georgia, 56% of the votes have been cast by women so far – a share that is the same as four years ago.

And in Wisconsin, where 989,000 early votes were cast, 90% of voters for whom Catalist has data so far are white and 4% are Black, which is essentially the same as at this point in 2020.

The proportions among men and women in the Badger State have remained about the same as they were four years ago, at 44% for men and 55% for women.

CNN’s Edward Wu contributed to this report.

This story has been updated with additional information.