Members of Manchester United’s hierarchy doubtless got a sense of deja vu during the executive committee meeting held at INEOS’ London headquarters on October 8. Because it was there, once again, that serious thought was given to sacking Erik ten Hag.

It had been a near-identical situation in May, during a similar summit in Monaco, when, as The Athletic revealed, INEOS figurehead and United co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe was first advised to change manager. On that occasion, United’s search for alternative candidates overshadowed their looming FA Cup final appearance but ultimately ended in Ten Hag staying in place and getting an extra year on his contract.

This time, although it took 20 days to come to pass, Ten Hag was relieved of his duties.

At the INEOS offices, over the road from Harrods department store, chief executive Omar Berrada, sporting director Dan Ashworth and technical director Jason Wilcox presented the football reasons for why a new manager might be required in a meeting attended by Ratcliffe, co-chairman Joel Glazer, club board member Sir Dave Brailsford, INEOS representatives Jean-Claude Blanc, Rob Nevin and Roger Bell, as well as United’s chief operating officer Collette Roche.

The executive committee (ExCo) meetings are monthly get-togethers to discuss the entire club, from commercial to stadium, hence the spectrum of people involved but, as The Athletic reported, this one carried extra significance given the talk around the manager’s future. Roche was among those on the business side who left the meeting before that major agenda item, which came amid a conversation about the wider picture at United and a full interrogation of club finances, as has become customary since INEOS took charge of United’s football and business operations this year.

Indeed, the state of United’s balance sheet has been a factor throughout the debate on Ten Hag. The cost of replacing him and hiring a replacement was a consideration at the end of last season, but the irony in United opting to trigger the 12-month extension in his contract is that his compensation now will be higher.

A figure of about £15million ($19.5m) has been confirmed as accurate by people briefed on the matter, who, like others in this article, will remain anonymous to protect relationships. That sum, while giving pause for thought due to United’s recent record of making losses, combined with financial regulations imposed by UEFA (European football’s governing body) and the Premier League, was not considered prohibitive to a change. The cost could be swallowed if those in charge judged the sporting case compelling. And United’s positions of 14th in the 20-club Premier League and 21st in the 36-team Europa League forced the issue. The drop in performance can be seen from their rolling expected goals (xG) chart below.

United’s expected goals against latterly outweighed their positive xG

No immediate action was taken on Ten Hag’s position at the ExCo despite the negative assessment of his reign, but a contingency plan was formulated for if performances and results did not improve.

United executives began assessing candidates afresh, with Ruben Amorim high in their thoughts. They had already looked at the Sporting Lisbon head coach in the summer but after conversations both parties decided the time wasn’t right then. His release clause was higher and United directors wanted to see how Ten Hag fared in a new structure.

United staff made further background checks on Amorim more recently, were informed he would be willing to leave Sporting despite their Champions League campaign, and came to an understanding of the fee to prise him away from the Portuguese club. A release clause of around €10million (£8.3m/$10.8m) was not seen as an obstacle. Berrada is a huge admirer of Amorim and has been a key driver behind the push to appoint him at United, although it is a collective call.

The combined cost of Ten Hag’s departure and Amorim’s potential arrival does push United close to the line on financial regulations, according to those with knowledge of the situation, but Ratcliffe has privately indicated a desire to test the limits and figure out a solution later.

Ratcliffe’s role in these developments should not be underestimated. He went on record as saying the decision rests with Berrada and Ashworth, but nothing of this magnitude would happen without his say-so. Ten Hag would have gone in the summer had Ratcliffe insisted, but he was persuaded to maintain the status quo after talks with Thomas Tuchel, the No 1 choice, and then Roberto De Zerbi broke down.

Ten Hag would have departed in the summer had Ratcliffe decided so (Photo: Manchester United/Manchester United via Getty Images)

Amorim, touted as a possible successor to Pep Guardiola at Manchester City, represents the kind of bullish appointment that appeals to the petrochemicals billionaire.

Those in charge at United regard the 39-year-old, who has two titles and three cups in four years of first-team management in Portugal, albeit a mixed record in the European competitions, as a strong personality capable of bringing glamour and attractive football to the club. His preference for playing with a back three is not seen as an issue, given the make-up of United’s squad.

United also looked at Massimiliano Allegri, but the 57-year-old former Juventus manager was viewed as someone far less likely to build for the long term in the way Amorim could. Edin Terzic, 41, out of work having stepped down after leading Borussia Dortmund to last season’s Champions League final, came up in discussions too. Tuchel was not considered on this occasion, prompting him to accept the England job this month.

There were also talks about Xavi, the 44-year-old who left Barcelona in the summer after three seasons in charge, but not to a serious degree, and United’s executives kept coming back to Amorim. They wanted to have matters lined up before making a change so there was no prospect of another unseemly tour of candidates emerging in public.

Berrada and Ashworth flew to Lisbon to progress negotiations on Amorim once Ten Hag was told of his fate at Carrington on Monday morning.

It was only September 1, less than two months ago, that Berrada and Ashworth told journalists during a briefing at Old Trafford that Ten Hag had their “full backing”, and that is perhaps an awkward look in hindsight.

Some at the club feel the two executives erred in speaking at that moment, with the quotes coming out, as agreed with reporters, after that day’s game against arch-rivals Liverpool, which United lost 3-0 at home. But from their perspective, communication is important for fans, whatever the prospects of becoming a hostage to fortune, and United wanted Ten Hag to be a success.

Results changed matters.

One high-ranking person at United described the loss to his Dutch countryman Arne Slot’s team as “grim with a capital G” and though Ten Hag’s side won the next two games, against Premier League strugglers Southampton and Barnsley of third-tier League One in the Carabao Cup, scoring 10 goals without reply in the process, they would celebrate victory in one of the next eight before Ten Hag was fired. Since March 1, United have 27 points from 21 league games, the same as Crystal Palace, Brentford and Fulham, one more than Everton, and five fewer than Bournemouth.

The 2-1 defeat at West Ham on Sunday in what proved Ten Hag’s final match may have been unfortunate, decided by a hugely controversial late VAR intervention, and the fact a change of manager has come after a largely good display in that game surprised some at United. But those in power saw familiar failings, with players only able to perform as a collective for 45 minutes before reverting to operating more as individuals.

Players must take some blame for that, people in the hierarchy acknowledged, but they reasoned there comes a point when the manager is responsible through a deficiency of motivation or communication. Ten Hag shook everyone’s hand in the dressing room after the final whistle on Sunday, which some perceived as him sensing he may be in jeopardy.

In Ten Hag’s final fortnight at United, those around the club noticed the football leadership team being less visible with him, both at the Carrington training ground and at games. Although, on Sunday evening, he still started preparation for the Carabao Cup last-16 tie today (Wednesday) at home against Leicester City.

When Berrada and Ashworth delivered the news the next day, Ten Hag responded in a dignified manner.

That afternoon, he took a private jet home to the Netherlands, hugging a ground-control staffer on the tarmac on his way up the steps. It was in his country, at a military event involving his daughter, that he spent the weekend of October 12-13. There was feverish speculation over his future then, and now there again he is expected to take some time out to reflect.

His assistant and compatriot Ruud van Nistelrooy will take interim charge of the team. Van Nistelrooy’s elevation, however temporary, was expected by several people at the club before Ten Hag’s departure. Some around United believed Van Nistelrooy would be given a real run at managing the team, allowing executives to conduct a thorough process on a permanent replacement, with Ratcliffe said to admire the former United striker highly. Van Nistelrooy’s aura and charisma have been commented on at Carrington since his appointment to the staff in the summer.

But that outcome, now not expected, would have presented a point of intrigue given Ten Hag had brought Van Nistelrooy in.

Van Nistelrooy was not, contrary to certain public opinion, an INEOS hire, but a proposal by Ten Hag’s agent Kees Vos when discussions took place over refreshing the coaching setup. The 48-year-old, who scored 150 goals for the club from 2001-06, has caught attention in recent weeks, soaking up the fan chants alone after away matches against Porto, Aston Villa, and Fenerbahce, and being the first to take issue with officials in the Brentford and West Ham games, as well as revving up players from the technical area.

Van Nistelrooy waves to supporters after the Fenerbahce game (Photo: Zohaib Alam – MUFC/Manchester United via Getty Images)

United are working to complete Amorim’s appointment, but the terms of his release clause mean negotiations are required for a swift exit. Depending on how talks go, Van Nistelrooy may get a few games more than this tie against Leicester, with Chelsea visiting Old Trafford for a Premier League fixture on Sunday and a Europa League meeting with PAOK Salonika of Greece there four days later.

In Lisbon last night, Amorim headed straight down the tunnel after Sporting’s 3-1 quarter-final win over Nacional in the Portuguese League Cup, telling reporters in his press conference that after a “strange day” he would wait for matters to be decided before explaining his thoughts. “I’ll do what I want, what I want to do, as I’ve always done throughout my time as a player and coach,” he said. Asked about the awkward atmosphere in the stadium and the anger among supporters over his prospective move to United, he added: “They really believe in my work and love is very close to hate.”

United’s goalscoring record has proved terminal for Ten Hag. They have only eight in the 2024-25 Premier League after nine games. The last time they had managed fewer than nine at this stage of a top-flight campaign was in 1973-74, the last time they were relegated.

But chance creation has generally been decent. United have had 27 Opta-defined ‘big chances’ this season (created and rebounds) and missed 22. No team in the division has more (Tottenham Hotspur are on 22 too). The difference between United’s expected goals figure (14.78, the sixth-best total) and their actual number of goals scored is the widest in the Premier League at -6.78 (Newcastle are next on -5.29).

Ten Hag got rid of Cristiano Ronaldo early in his 2022-23 debut season and also let France international forward Anthony Martial go last summer, with the replacements being Rasmus Hojlund and Joshua Zirkzee, young players who had scored nine and 11 goals respectively in their best seasons in Italy’s Serie A before joining United. Ten Hag was on board with both signings, enthusiastically so on Hojlund, but in each of his summers he also wanted an experienced Premier League striker to share the burden.

Last year, the target was Harry Kane of Tottenham, who instead went to Bayern Munich. In 2024, it can be revealed Ten Hag felt Brighton’s United old boy Danny Welbeck would be an excellent addition. Towards the end of last season, as United weighed up how to replace the outgoing Martial, Welbeck’s name was discussed internally and people at the club gave serious thought to making him an offer.

Welbeck was born in Longsight, Manchester, joining United’s academy aged 11 and making 142 first-team appearances before being sold to Arsenal in summer 2014. So his return, a decade on, would have carried a romantic pull.

Ten Hag was a key voice of support after Welbeck made a lasting impression with his performance at Old Trafford in the Dutchman’s first Premier League game in August 2022, when Brighton, under Graham Potter, were 2-1 winners. Welbeck set up Brighton’s first with a measured cross to Pascal Gross and troubled United with his running beyond their back line.

Welbeck continued his good form against United, scoring the opening goal of Brighton’s 3-1 victory at Old Trafford in September 2023, arriving in the box to finish first-time having twice been involved in the move’s build-up.

Ten Hag wanted to bring Welbeck back to United (Eddie Keogh/Getty Images)

He was already 33 when his name was brought up in recruitment discussions at United, but Welbeck’s contract at Brighton was running out and he was heading for free agency, so would have cost nothing by way of a transfer fee. His experience was projected as a positive for the dressing room. He is known to live the life of an athlete and ranks among the top performers at Brighton on physical tests.

But a concrete offer did not materialise for Welbeck to come back to his boyhood club. Ten Hag’s job was uncertain, so United were cautious about committing to a transfer under his direction. The new structure being built around Ten Hag was not officially in place and that put a hold on recruitment. Ashworth, as Brighton’s technical director, was involved in Welbeck joining that club from Watford in the summer 2020 but was barred from acting for United this year until compensation was agreed with previous employers Newcastle for his services.

Whatever United’s interest last summer, Welbeck had signalled his intent to stay at Brighton and happily re-signed after he was offered a new two-year deal shortly after the January transfer window closed. The wisdom of United’s interest has been shown in his scoring form this season. He has six Premier League goals, one of them against United, in nine appearances.

Ten Hag’s influence has been felt on United’s recruitment, though.

Even this summer, after his position had appeared so fragile, he could sign two more players formerly under him at Dutch club Ajax — Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui. That made it five in the squad who had played for him in Amsterdam, to go with Antony, Lisandro Martinez and Andre Onana, which speaks to problems in recruitment.

The number could have been even higher. Ten Hag pressed for Ajax old boy Ryan Gravenberch last summer, having first enquired about his availability at Bayern in the January 2023 window. Bayern said Gravenberch was not for sale, so United bought fellow midfielder Mason Mount from Chelsea. But then Tuchel left Gravenberch out of his team at the start of the 2023-24 season and Liverpool moved to complete a €40million deal, at a point when United had no more funds to commit. In Ten Hag’s first season, he also advocated for Jurrien Timber, now of Arsenal, before deciding on Martinez.

The collection of ex-Ajax players meant that Ten Hag’s requests to be given more time for his methods to click were given less credence. These were signings already well-versed in his style.

He never did get a No 6 in the mould required to fulfil his team’s identity though, following the failed attempt for Frenkie de Jong (another Ajax alumnus) from Barcelona in 2022. United even went as far as making a video of De Jong mocked up next to some of their club legends in an attempt to persuade him to join. But he never saw it.

Ten Hag’s vision is for proactive and fluid attack and defence as one team, rather than divisions of labour, meaning a large emphasis is placed on a No 6 as orchestrator. No De Jong, or a player of his ilk, meant compromises the whole way.

There were consistent queries from some at the club over whether the players being targeted were Premier League-ready. United legend Sir Alex Ferguson, still the last manager to make them champions 11 years ago now, has expressed an opinion to friends that signings have been below the level necessary.

Some players at the club felt that about Ten Hag.

Ronaldo was the most obvious example of that, although Ten Hag will forever insist the superstar failed to practise what he preached on professionalism by stepping out of high-intensity sessions. Casemiro and Raphael Varane also felt Ten Hag should relax his approach, while his fallout with Jadon Sancho has been well documented.

David de Gea, who was also jettisoned, appeared to gloat at Ten Hag’s demise with an emoji-only post to X shortly after the sacking news broke.

🤌🏼

— David de Gea (@D_DeGea) October 28, 2024

It was not a toxic dressing room, though, and the efforts made by players in games indicated a certain togetherness. Ten Hag has a warmer personality than projected at press conferences. But several players also felt the Ten Hag era had run its course. Van Nistelrooy’s influence grew.

Others, such as youngsters Alejandro Garnacho and Kobbie Mainoo, flourished under Ten Hag’s disciplined doctrine. His communication failed to hit the mark for some of his players, although knowing exactly what to say in the pressurised air of United was sometimes tough. In training, some exhibit signs of feeling the outside scrutiny.

Ten Hag tried to be softer in his now-curtailed final season but still caused something of a stir when he insisted on the construction of a large white wall at Carrington. Due to building work at the complex, the first team now train on pitches which at weekends are surrounded by members of the public watching academy games at levels from under-13s to under-18s. Ten Hag wanted to screen these vantage points, in the same way as their former pitches are protected. But coming at a cost of £200,000, “Erik’s Wall”, as it is called by some people at Carrington, is seen as unnecessary in certain quarters, especially in a time of job cuts at United.

Ten Hag wanted his training pitches better hidden (Ash Donelon/Manchester United via Getty Images)

Supporters may quip that guarding against spies, however inadvertent, is unnecessary anyway given it has been hard to detect patterns of play for much of the season. That September day against Liverpool, the same midfield gaps were apparent, and this was marked down by directors at the time.

Ten Hag does put on enjoyable sessions, with one drill named after Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone. It involves two teams of seven facing off on a small-sided pitch, with one group in a low block and the other trying to pass their way through. It is said to be a rewarding game of cat and mouse. Ten Hag is regarded as a workaholic who regularly takes footage home to watch. Sometimes players have found that too much, such as when Ten Hag tried to coach a small-sided game that was supposed to be a bit of fun after a session.

He would talk with more executives about his team than before the INEOS investment at the start of this year, when football director John Murtough was the sole link to the board. But Ten Hag might argue his football expertise tops those who have made the call on his future, and that inevitably leads to an element of friction when results are bad.

After the 3-0 home defeat against Tottenham in late September, a group of United executives huddled in the directors’ lounge to debrief, giving those in their presence the impression that something was up.

That was the day Ten Hag gave summer signing Manuel Ugarte his first start, only for the midfielder to be breezed past by centre-back Micky van de Ven on the way to Spurs opening the scoring after three minutes. Ugarte had a difficult day and Ten Hag took him off after 72 minutes, then left him on the bench for the two subsequent games at Porto and Villa.

Ten Hag went on to say Ugarte needed to learn how to play in his team and coaches were tasked with shifting him from a midfielder who defends man-for-man to one who operates more zonally. Against Spurs, he was caught out of position, but for the manager to not use a player United had spent an initial £42million on in games of clear importance struck observers as notable, especially as the player’s agent, Jorge Mendes, has become influential again at United.

Ugarte was expensive but not used much by Ten Hag (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

There was also a contradiction in Ten Hag saying Ugarte would adapt through playing, while at the same time barely selecting him. The 23-year-old Uruguayan played two minutes against Brentford on October 19, and impressed when starting against Fenerbahce last Thursday, but was again unused at West Ham. Instead, Casemiro and Christian Eriksen, both 32, played the majority of that match.

Both those players looked to be on the way out in the summer and Ugarte was viewed at the club as a good signing, although Ten Hag, who wanted a reunion with Sofyan Amrabat after his 2023-24 season on loan from Fiorentina and a previous spell together at Dutch side Utrecht, had needed to be persuaded through video footage. He also wanted to keep Scott McTominay, who was one of only four United players to reach double digits for goals last season. But his sale to Napoli was needed for United to bring in fellow midfielder Ugarte.

Ten Hag’s selection for the Villa trip, with De Ligt and Martinez rotated out for Jonny Evans and Harry Maguire, left some players thinking their manager was trying to shake a performance from his team to save his job. Many at the club understood his thinking, given the Jekyll and Hyde nature of his team and the dependability, in a specific way, of Evans and Maguire. The first half at Palace in late September and the second half against Brentford 11 days ago were among the best performances seen in his time at United. But in between there was also awful football.

Bruno Fernandes, the midfielder and captain, personified that uncertainty, capable of brilliance and carelessness. Ten Hag saw Fernandes as one of his best lieutenants, aggressive in running, but one former member of the coaching staff has privately bemoaned his loose levels of application to the side’s pressing schemes.

Fans appeared to vote with their feet, with tickets for the Brentford game being much more readily available than usual. When apathy strikes the executives usually get worried because of the potential hit to commercial revenues.

Ten Hag had to contend with having no natural left-back available since February, when Luke Shaw suffered a hamstring injury. Shaw’s understudy, Tyrell Malacia, has been out for more than 15 months with a serious knee problem. That seriously affected Ten Hag’s approach. But then it was also his call this summer to sell Alvaro Fernandez, a 21-year-old Spanish left-back who never made a senior appearance in four seasons at United, to Benfica, where he is now playing in the Champions League.

Injuries blighted last season, and have continued into this one, and while it is hard to pinpoint why this is the case, there must be questions asked across the board. Ten Hag could not use £60million centre-back Leny Yoro, who suffered a metatarsal fracture in his foot during pre-season when that prospect was flagged in the medical before his summer transfer. Hojlund’s hamstring pull also deprived Ten Hag of his best striker for the crucial opening phase of the new campaign.

The United treatment room is not as full as it was for the nadir of Palace away back in May, though. That 4-0 defeat preceded the meeting in Monaco which had appeared to seal Ten Hag’s fate. But then came the FA Cup final against champions Manchester City and a performance which suggested to the decision-makers that Ten Hag could inspire this group. There was also the matter of United players hearing a rumour City had already got their buses decked out in “Double Double” wrapping ready for a victory parade, although City deny this was the case. That display at Wembley now looks to have been the product of a unique set of circumstances.

Ten Hag, who remained diligent and resilient throughout the constant scrutiny, will always have his two trophies, the 2023 Carabao Cup as well as last season’s FA Cup — the first pieces of silverware in six years for United’s men’s first team. But United, led by Ratcliffe, want more.

Additional reporting: Mark Critchley, Charlotte Harpur in Lisbon

(Top photos: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)