The Houston Texans visit the New York Jets on Thursday evening (8:15 PM ET, Prime Video) to kick off Week 9 of the NFL.

After starting the season 2-1, the Jets have lost five straight and are now +550 to make the playoffs after opening the season as a slight favorite to win the AFC East to transport.

The Texans (6-2) have won four of five and are coming off a 23-20 victory over the Colts who completed a season sweep in the series. However, Houston will be without Stefon Diggs, who is out for the season with a torn ACL.

The AFC South-leading Texans opened as a 1-point favorite, but the action has shifted to the Jets for their Halloween night game.

Odds current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Jets -2.5 (open Texans -1)
Money line: Jets -130, Texans +110
Top/Bottom: 42.5 (opened 43.5)

Distribution over the first half: Jets -0.5 (-105), Texans +0.5 (+125)
Jets total points: 21.5 (over -110/under -120)
Texans total points: 20.5 (over +100/under -130)

The props

Pass

Aaron Rodgers total passing yards: 224.5 (over -140/under +110)
Rodgers total passing TDs: 1.5 (over +120/under -155)
CJ Stroud total passing yards: 224.5 (over +105/under -135)
Stroud total passing TDs: 1.5 (over +150/under -200)

Rush

Joe Mixon total rushing yards: 79.5 (over -120/under -110)
Breece Hall total rushing yards: 69.5 (over -115/under -125)
Braelon Allen total rushing yards: 19.5 (over -135/under +105)

Received

Davante Adams total receiving yards: 59.5 (over +100/under -130)
Garrett Wilson total receiving yards: 59.5 (over -120/under -110)
Tank Dell total receiving yards: 59.5 (over +105/under -135)
Dalton Schultz total receiving yards: 44.5 (over -105/under -125)
Hall total receiving yards: 29.5 (over -115/under -115)
Tyler Conklin total receiving yards: 24.5 (over -125/under -105)
Mixon total receiving yards: 24.5 (over -115/under -115)

Tyler Fulghum’s favorite pick

Jets moneyline (-130)

Of course the 2-6 team is preferable to the 6-2 team, right? The Jets have been a disaster this season, but they really aren’t as bad as the record indicates. The Texans, on the other hand, are not as good as their record indicates. They have a plus-9 point difference, which is more indicative of a .500 team. Additionally, the offense took another hit with the season-ending knee injury to WR Stefon Diggs.

The Jets’ season is likely over, but a win in this desperate spot could lead to something. I know it’s awkward, but New York is the preferred choice here for a reason. The Jets should win this game (although we’ve said that before this season). I bet they do.

Betting Trends

Courtesy of ESPN Stats and Information

• The Jets are 0-5 ATS in their past five games.

• If the Jets close as favorites, it would mark the fifth time in the Super Bowl era that a team with a winning percentage of .250 or lower will be favored over a team with a winning percentage of .750 or better in Week 9 or later. The previous four were straight 4-0 and 3-0-1 ATS (last instance: 2019 Browns vs. Bills).

• The Jets are straight-up 0-4 and ATS against teams with winning records this season.

• The Jets are 0-3 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, and they are 3-12 ATS in their past 15 games in that role.

• Three straight Jets games have exceeded the total. Six of the last seven Texans games have been under the total.

• The Texans are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs under DeMeco Ryans (five straight covers).

• The Texans are 13-28-2 all-time ATS in prime-time games.

• The Jets are 1-6 ATS in their past seven prime-time games and 7-16 ATS in prime-time games since 2016.

• The Jets are 8-17 ATS since the start of last season, second-worst in the NFL (Panthers).

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