Remember, financial markets have started touting a Trump victory in recent weeks. It is widely believed that the possibility of extended and/or expanded tax cuts, tied to rates, means a stronger dollar and higher returns. If there is a period without a clear outcome, our strategists believe some of that Trump positioning could disappear as Harris’ chances of a win are reassessed.

That’s before factoring in the risk of lengthy delays in the closely held Senate races. Remember, the market response could look very different if we have a divided Congress.

You have to have a sense of the Fed’s high expectations. Officials could be forgiven for wanting to keep a low profile next week, but on Thursday they will be in the spotlight with their interest rate decision. And recent data shows it’s hard to see them doing anything other than a 25 basis point rate cut. Hurricanes and strikes mean Fed officials will take October’s shockingly low job growth with a bucket full of salt.

The Bank of England is also meeting next week, but let’s be honest: they have bigger problems closer to home. Yields on government bonds, or government bonds, have risen sharply since Wednesday’s budget unveiled big tax hikes and even bigger spending increases. This is a far cry from the turmoil following the infamous 2022 mini-budget. However, markets have concluded that Labour’s first budget will shorten the BoE’s easing cycle.

We are much less convinced. This may seem like a big fiscal stimulus, but only if you compare it with the tax and spending plans in the March budget, which were widely seen as unfeasible regardless of who won the July election.

Daily spending should always increase, even if announced expectations still exceeded most people’s expectations. And steep tax increases make the medium-term economic consequences of higher spending less clear. That is the conclusion we also expect from the BoE, and a 25 bp cut is still largely the base case on Thursday.

I don’t need to tell you that next week will be the most crucial of the year so far. So sit back, light a sparkler, roast some marshmallows, load up a chart of 10-year Treasury yields, and enjoy the show.