Kamala Harris enters the final weekend of the presidential race with a narrower lead over Donald Trump than her Democratic predecessors, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton, had at similar points in the 2020 and 2016 races.

Poll analysis shows that Harris’ lead in both national and swing state polls is significantly smaller than Biden’s and Clinton’s, pointing to a very close election on Tuesday.

There is a deep sense of uncertainty surrounding the presidential election during the final week of the race. With four days to go until election day, both Harris and Trump are not slowing down and are campaigning furiously in battleground states.

The gap is smaller for Harris

With early voting already underway in many states, Harris maintains a modest lead over Trump in national polling averages. She leads by 1.2 points, with 48 percent of likely voters indicating her support, compared to Trump’s 46.8 percent, according to polling analytics site FiveThirtyEight.

However, RealClearPolitics shows Trump with a slight lead, with 48.4 percent compared to Harris’ 48.1, giving him a 0.3 lead. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin puts Harris in the lead with 48.5 percent to Trump’s 47.4, a margin of 1.1. The New York Times shows a similar result, with Harris at 49 percent to Trump’s 48, a single point in her favor.

This is in stark contrast to the lead that Biden and Clinton had in their respective election years. According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden led Trump by 8.4 points in 2020, consistently maintaining his lead over other polling aggregators such as RealClearPolitics and 270toWin.

This trend was similar in 2016, when Clinton had a 6.2-point lead over Trump at the same point in the FiveThirtyEight model, and was echoed by other polling aggregators such as RealClearPolitics and 270toWin. However, despite winning the popular vote, Clinton lost in the Electoral College.

As Election Day approaches, Harris may be leading in the national polls, but her path to the necessary 270 Electoral College votes has narrowed. Like Clinton in 2016, Harris may win the popular vote, but the electoral map presents challenges.

Trump, on the other hand, has recently gained ground in key battleground states. As of Friday, FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts give the Republican candidate a 52 percent chance of winning, while Harris has a 48 percent chance. The updated model reflected several strong polling numbers in Trump’s favor in crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Polling expert Nate Silver’s prediction also favors Trump: he scores 53.8 percent to Harris’ 48.8 percent. Both predictions take into account simulations that analyze voter behavior and trends by state.