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Long-range forecast – November 27, 2024

Moana 2 | Walt Disney photos

Domestic opening weekend reach (5 days): $120 million – $150 million

Disney is back and claiming another Thanksgiving weekend Moana 2in theaters the Wednesday before the holiday, competing with Universal’s second weekend Bad part 1.

Although Moana ($248.7 million domestic total) was only the fourth highest-grossing Disney animated film released in 2016 – behind March’s. Zootopia ($341.2 million domestic total), April’s live action/animation hybrid The Jungle Book (Domestic total $364 million)and December Find Dory ($486.2 million domestic total) – it had perhaps the biggest cultural impact of the set, driven in large part by its earworm-filled soundtrack (it was the fifth best-selling album of the year in the US and received an Oscar nomination for Best Original Song) and the enduring popularity of the lead character, now part of the lucrative ‘Disney Princess’ canon.

It was popular enough for Disney to greenlight a live-action remake (set for summer 2026) and a follow-up series on Disney+ TV…. and then, in February of this year, Disney announced that the series would be turned into a movie and released in theaters some nine months later. Since there are no reviews circulating yet, it’s hard to say to what extent Moana 2‘s episodic origins can be seen in the final product… but also in the film should Since it doesn’t have a strong, cohesive central storyline, it should have no problem outpacing its predecessor, which dominated the Thanksgiving weekend (with a three-day domestic opening of $56.6 million and a five-day domestic opening of $82 million) in 2016 . , which has become the norm among Disney animated titles in 2019 Frozen 2 ($130.2 million domestic opening, $477.3 domestic total), 2024 Inside out 2 ($154.2 million domestic opening, $652.9 million domestic total), 2018 Incredible 2 ($182.6 million domestic opening, $608.5 million domestic total), 2019 Toy story 4 ($120.9 million domestic opening, $434 million domestic total), 2016 Find Dory ($135 million domestic opening, $486.2 million domestic total) and 2018’s Ralph disconnects the internet ($56.2 million domestic opening, $201 million domestic total) all previous films in their respective series in the domestic market earned more.

Disney could certainly use a win for its Walt Disney Animation Studios division. After the release of 2019’s Frozen 2 the weekend before Thanksgiving, no Walt Disney Animation release has earned more than $100 million domestically. Of those, three also came out on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving: 2021’s Encanto ($27.2 million three-day domestic opening, $40.5 million five-day domestic opening, $96 million domestic total), 2022 Strange world ($12.1 million three-day domestic opening, $18.8 million five-day domestic opening, $37.9 million domestic total) and last year’s Wish ($19.6 million three-day domestic opening, $31.6 million five-day domestic opening, $63.9 million total). (The other, March 2021 Raya and the last dragonopens all day in theaters and on Disney+, opening to $8.5 million and peaking at $54.7 million domestically).

Strong pre-sales point the way to a possible five-day opening weekend of more than $150 million Moana 2which is benefiting from a lack of generally released family titles since late September The wild robot ($35.7M domestic opening) and Transformers One ($24.6 million domestic opening). Moana 2 will need north of $652.9 million over the total run to dethrone this year’s seat Inside out 2 as the highest-grossing animated film of all time.

Tracking updates (as of 11/1)

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