Lisa Desjardins:

There is a gender gap in these early voting results. Right now we see far more women voting than men, in fact by a 10 point difference.

That’s something the Harris campaign loves. We see in polls, including our October poll, that Harris is really dominating among women. They believe that the more women vote, the higher the percentage is, the better it is for her.

I’ll note now that this is the same ratio we saw in that election in 2020. Of course, Joe Biden won in part because of the gender gap in this election. These are just early votes. We don’t know if these women are necessarily Democrats or Republicans.

And I will say that there is reason to believe that more conservative women are voting this year. And I’ll show you why, at least early. If you look at the data for rural and urban voters in 2020, the percentage of early voting was about the same.

But look this year. Look what we have: a divide: rural voters make up a much larger share of early votes than in 2020. And I can testify from Georgia, Virginia, that this certainly has to do with the fact that Trump and his campaign are pushing to try it. and extract their red voters, especially in rural areas.

They’ll definitely show up. The question now is: are these new voters, or are these voters who would have already voted anyway, and are they just doing it sooner?