Yesterday started a series of active weather days across Texas. We expect further impacts this weekend and Monday, including heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms. After a few calm days, another upper storm system will arrive around Friday.

Thunderstorms have been underway in the Texas Panhandle of eastern New Mexico overnight. Locally, heavy rainfall has provided welcome relief after the terribly dry month of October. These rain chances will spread to West Texas, Permian Basin, Northwest Texas and the Big Country this afternoon and evening. Some storms may become severe later this afternoon and evening. The most intense storms can produce large hail, damaging winds and even some tornadoes.

We expect widespread growth into a line or complex of storms moving northeast into Northwest Texas, Texoma and Oklahoma this evening. Additional storms may develop overnight and into Sunday morning in West Texas, Permian Basin, Big Country, Northwest Texas and Texoma – bringing hail, heavy rain, strong winds and brief tornadoes. Not all storms will produce severe weather, although we do expect some good gutter washing.

The wet weather will continue on Sunday

As we approach Sunday and Sunday evening, thunderstorm chances will continue to expand into Big Country, Concho Valley, North Texas, Texoma, Ark-La-Tex, Northeast Texas and East Texas. Like today, we expect multiple rounds of storms, many of which will develop into line segments or small clusters. Activity will tend to move east/northeast.

Some storms could be severe, with the risk of damaging winds, large hail and some tornadoes. Given the relatively messy storm mode, it will be difficult to determine corridors with higher potential for severe weather events with long lead time. Hopefully we can enjoy some good rain without too much noisy mischief, but with plenty of wind shear we will have to keep an eye out for signs of low level rotation in storms.

Monday could be a busy weather day for Texas

Monday can be problematic. A powerful cold front will move from west to east across much of Texas Monday morning through Tuesday morning. The cold front will “lift” and allow numerous thunderstorms to develop near Interstate 35 from Texoma, North Texas, to Central Texas Monday afternoon.

Environmental conditions may favor severe thunderstorms with the risk of damaging winds and embedded tornadoes. The line of storms will move across the eastern third into the eastern half of Texas Monday afternoon, Monday evening and Tuesday morning before leaving Texas to the east. Current timing projections suggest that much of Tuesday will see low-impact weather hazards across Texas – with gusty northwest winds and much cooler temperatures.

Calmer weather for election day

Tuesday and Wednesday seem to be less active, although there is a chance of light showers. Thursday, Friday and Saturday could become active with the arrival of a new storm system and upper level cold front. We will address the storm threat late this week after we are done with our current board.

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