Minnesota vs Illinois Prediction and Best Bet

My best choice
Minnesota -3 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Minnesota has fallen short of bookmakers’ expectations exactly once this season: a 31-14 loss to 3-point favorite Iowa on September 21. In the Gophers’ season opener, they went against the spread and lost by two to North Carolina. as, indeed, two-point underdogs.

Only so much can be taken from the two games in between, with Minnesota easily topping the spreads of -26.5 and -16.5 in 48- and 27-point wins, respectively. Beating Rhode Island at the FCS level and overmatched Nevada is preferable to the alternative, but it is not inherently informative.

However, looking at those box scores, something becomes clear. Gophers’ star running back Darius Taylor wasn’t 100%. He missed the season opener due to injury, and recorded just 35 carries for 222 total yards over the next three games. Add in 13 carries for 36 yards at Michigan, and Taylor’s average rush through his first four games was just 5.38 yards.

In the three games since, including one upset at UCLA, Taylor has taken 56 carries for 255 yards, a 4.55 average.

At first glance, that seems like a step backwards. But what stands out is the number of attempts per game: 18.7 in the last three, compared to just 12 per game in Taylor’s first four this season.

It’s no coincidence that Minnesota has covered the spread by an average of 12 points over the last three games compared to oddsmakers’ expectations. It goes a bit under the radar, but PJ Fleck prefers to run the ball, to the extent that it should negatively impact the Gophers in the quarterback transfer market next season.

With Taylor as a healthy ball carrier, Minnesota is doing much better. Meanwhile, Illinois ranks No. 87 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against, per cfb charts. Worse, the Illini are giving up success on 48% of opposing rushes, No. 126 in the country.

Taylor and the Gophers should control the game on Saturday afternoon, and that alone is reason enough to believe Minnesota wins this Big Ten West game by at least a field goal.

Minnesota vs. Illinois same-game parlay (SGP)

Minnesota -2.5

Darius Taylor Over 69.5 rushing yards / Darius Taylor any time TD

Under 45.5

Taylor has exceeded this waiver support in two of the last three games, against USC and Maryland. On an EPA per attack against basis, the Trojans (No. 47 in the nation, -0.033 EPA per attack against) and the Terrapins (No. 37, -0.046) are significantly better than Illinois, which ranks No. 87 because it is +0.027 EPA gives up per rush against.

In other words, Taylor should get plenty of opportunities to run, because those opportunities will improve Minnesota’s position. It should also be noted that he has scored in each of the last two games and five of the seven this season.

If Taylor takes the lion’s share of Minnesota’s offense, it will slow this game down. The Gophers are better defensively, an excellent passing defense that is well suited to bolster Illinois’ offense.

Learn how to parlay on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Minnesota vs. Illinois Odds

Minnesota vs Illinois live odds

Opening odds Minnesota vs. Illinois

• Minnesota vs. Illinois Spread: Illinois +2.5
• Moneyline Minnesota vs. Illinois: Minnesota -150, Illinois +125
• Minnesota vs. Illinois over/under: 45.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Minnesota vs. Illinois Spread and Over/Under Analysis

• Sunday’s first real lines were simply not good, giving Illinois a three-point advantage before the market quickly corrected. Why? Probably because the Illini are at home and mere advanced metrics don’t fully understand the impact Taylor can have when healthy, underestimating his impact in recent weeks.
• Once corrected, this spread towards Minnesota remained at -2.5 until Monday afternoon, before rising to -3.
• This total first hit the market at 46.5 and quickly dropped to 45.5, where it remained all week.
• The fact that the spread moved so much while the total remained stable highlights the fact that the initial spread offer was simply wrong.

Minnesota vs. Illinois betting trend to know

Two of the Golden Gophers’ last three games have gone under their total, as have three of the Fighting Illini’s last four. Find more college football betting odds for Minnesota vs. Illinois.

Minnesota vs Illinois Game Information

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