Is that it then? Is Arsenal’s Premier League title challenge on the first weekend of November over for another season? Perhaps not entirely, as Rodri’s absence and Arne Slot’s inexperience in the Premier League mean this could be an unusual campaign, even before the potential fallout from the charges against Manchester City are taken into account. But if Arsenal are to win the league for the first time in 21 years, massive improvement will be needed and at the moment they look like a side that has lost their way and confidence.

As a rule of thumb, in this era it takes at least 90 points to win the Premier League. That means teams can afford to drop just 24; Arsenal have already dropped twelve, meaning half of what they could lose with a quarter of the season played. It is true that the fixture list has not been friendly, that they have already played their away games against Manchester City, Aston Villa, Tottenham and Newcastle, but even so their margin for error in the 28 remaining games is extremely limited.

Arsenal have six points less than last season after ten games this season, and nine points less than the season before. But it’s not just results, it’s performance. And after taking just one point from their past three league games, Arsenal travel to Chelsea next Sunday. With Nottingham Forest coming home the next game, this feels like a crucial phase.

This was a losing game in the 12th minute when Anthony Gordon produced a perfect cross for Alexander Isak to head in – the advantage of perhaps a right-footed winger playing the old-fashioned way on the right. It was a brilliant cross and a decisive header. To some extent it was just one of those things, an extremely good cause. But on the other hand, Arsenal has become a club where these things happen again and again – and there were always elements that could have been better.

Thomas Partey’s good header brought the ball back into a central area just outside the penalty area, handing possession to Bruno Guimarães. Gordon crossed the first time, but was still given a remarkable window to gauge his delivery; Could Jurriën Timber or Gabriel Martinelli have done more to apply pressure? And Isak was unchallenged, wandering into the surprisingly large gap between Gabriel Magalhães and William Saliba. A nice goal, yes, but made possible by three moments of inaction. It’s been six league games since Arsenal kept a clean sheet, last season’s vaunted defense in danger of becoming a memory.

But it was also a lost match in Oslo on September 9, when Martin Ødegaard damaged his ankle ligaments during his match for Norway. Without him there is a lack of creativity in midfield and no brains to bring the other parts of the squad together. The quasi-4-4-2 that Arsenal set up on Saturday looked blocky and unconvincing. As with Bournemouth in their previous away match, they created very little. There were a few set plays that led to shots in a crowded penalty area, plus Declan Rice’s late header from Bukayo Saka’s cross, but other than that Newcastle kept Arsenal at bay relatively comfortably.

While we recognize that Manchester City’s resources are much greater, meaning they can deal with injuries to Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne with less drama, this does bring scrutiny to Arsenal’s recruitment. The season before Arsenal’s final title challenge ran out of steam as Ødegaard grew tired; the need to provide backup was clear. There was a thought that Kai Havertz might do that, but he is now apparently a confirmed forward. Mikel Merino is not the same kind of midfielder. Fábio Vieira, who cost £35 million in 2022, has made five league appearances and is on loan at Porto. Emile Smith Rowe is at Fulham. Perhaps a new left back/centre back wasn’t the priority this summer.

And then there’s the psychological impact of Ødegaard’s absence, which appears to have put Arsenal in an increasingly defensive posture, making them, paradoxically, worse at defending. Ødegaard’s injury has become part of Arsenal’s wider persecution complex. And in that sense, this match was lost on the corresponding weekend a year ago; lost 1-0 at Newcastle to Gordon’s controversial goal, which seemed to send Arteta and most of the club with him into full conspiracy mode.

That in turn contributed to the strange wispy build-up this week and perhaps the frustration that led to four Arsenal players being booked after half-time for dissent or vicious fouls. Arteta has even acknowledged that his own emotional behavior has not helped, but there remains at this Arsenal a mystifying culture of equality, a tendency to lose games, and an inability to withstand adversity.

They may have been unhappy at times lately, but at some point title winners have to get the job done. And Arsenal doesn’t do that.