Trump leads among both men and women in the Hawkeye State

A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense survey of Iowa voters shows that 53% support former President Donald Trump and 43% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in 2024. Three percent don’t know yet and 1% plan to to vote for a third party. Taking into account the support of undecided voters, Trump’s total support rises to 54% and Harris’s to 45%.

“Both female and male voters in Iowa support Trump, women by a five-point margin, 51% to 46%, and men by a significant 17-point margin, 56% to 39%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Opinion Poll, said. “Trump also leads among independents, 53% to 36%.”

Harris’ strength in Iowa is among voters under 30, who have her ahead of Trump 54% to 46%, while Trump leads among all other age groups over 30 with support ranging between 6 percentage points and 23 points. Harris also leads with voters with post-graduate degrees 52% to 45%.

Voters who said they had already voted for Trump, 56% to 44%, while voters who are still very likely to vote for Trump, break 53% to 42%.

The last Emerson Iowa general election poll in October 2023 showed Trump with the same 10-point lead over President Joe Biden, 44% to 34%.

President Biden has a 34% job approval rating among likely voters in Iowa, and a 56% disapproval rating.

Methodology

The Emerson College Polling Iowa survey was conducted November 1-2, 2024. The sample of likely voters, n=800, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The datasets are weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on 2024 likely voter models. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polls, and voter registration data.

It’s important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry higher credibility intervals because the sample size is smaller. Poll results should be understood within the range of the poll’s scores, and with a 95% confidence interval, 1 in 20 times a poll will fall outside the range of the scores.

The data was collected by contacting landlines via Interactive Voice Response (telephone directory provided by Aristotle) ​​and an online voter panel provided by CINT.

All questions asked in this survey, with exact wording, along with full results, demographics, and cross-tabulation, can be found under Full Results. This research was funded by RealClearDefense.

FFULL RESULTS