Just days before the election, a new poll from one of America’s most trusted pollsters shows Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leading her Republican rival Donald Trump by three points in deep-red Iowa.

The new poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom was released Saturday, prompting polling analyst Nate Silver to write a quick analysis, calling the poll “shocking” and saying it “took the guts” to release it.

“(Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co.) has a long history of contradicting conventional wisdom and being right,” Silver wrote on his blog Silver Bulletin. “In a world where most pollsters have a lot of eggs on their faces, she has near-oracle status.”

The poll surveyed 808 Iowa voters between October 28 and 31, with a margin of error of 3.4 points. Of respondents, 47 percent supported Vice President Harris and 44 percent supported former President Trump.

Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.

For Harris, the poll reflects strong momentum among women and older voters in Iowa. The Des-Moines Register reported that Harris had a 20-point lead among women (56 percent to 36 percent) and a striking 63-to-28 lead among women over 65.

Independent voters also appeared to shift toward Harris, with independent women favoring Harris by 28 points, while independent men leaned toward Trump by a smaller margin.

Selzer’s poll shifted the poll aggregator model from Silver to Harris 45.4 and Trump 48.8 (giving Trump a winning margin of 3.4 points). Before the poll, Silver’s model had given Harris a 9 percent chance of winning Iowa, but afterward that nearly doubled to 17 percent.

Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a 93 percent chance of carrying Iowa, and Harris a 7 percent chance.

Silver ranks Selzer & Co. as one of the top two pollsters in America. FiveThirtyEight ranks the company 12th^e on the list of 282 pollsters for its track record and methodology.

Betting website Polymarket shifted its odds in favor of Harris after the poll was released, dropping from a 96 percent chance of a Trump victory on Friday to an 80 percent chance on Sunday.

The findings mark a significant shift from previous polls in Iowa, including Selzer’s June survey, which showed Trump 18 points ahead of President Joe Biden, who was then the presumptive Democratic nominee.

By September, that lead over Harris had shrunk to 4 points before turning in her favor this month.

Silver called Selzer a “maverick” for releasing the poll as, in his opinion, many other pollsters are “driving together” by publishing results that are almost exactly the same.

“If you had to play the odds, Selzer will probably be wrong this time,” Silver wrote, noting that other polls still show a Trump lead, including an Iowa poll from Emerson College, also released Saturday, where Trump leads by 9 points, good for 54 percent of the vote to Harris’ 45.

The Trump campaign quickly dismissed Selzer’s findings, calling them an “outlier” in a memo circulated hours after the poll’s release.

Campaign chief Tony Fabrizio pointed to the Emerson College poll, which he said “much more closely” reflects the Iowa electorate, especially given party registration trends that have favored Republicans since 2020 and the consistency of Emerson’s results with previous exit polls.

“Unlike Emerson, which transparently reports on its share of partisans and voter recalls in 2020, Des Moines Register is NOT disclosing the distribution of this information even though they asked for it in their survey,” Fabrizio said.

Former pollster Adam Carlson posted Fabrizo’s memo on X Saturday, writing, “This is definitely something a non-panic campaign would release.”

Trump carried Iowa by 9.5 points in 2016 and 8.2 points in 2020.