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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Game overview

The NFL’s Week 9 Sunday slate concludes with a matchup between two of the league’s top-performing teams against the spread, with the Colts (7-1 ATS) heading into Minnesota to take on the Vikings (5-2 ATS).

Despite inconsistency at the game’s most important position, Indianapolis currently has the league’s best record against the spread, with their only failed cover coming in Week 2 as road favorites in Green Bay.

Colts head coach Shane Steichen made the call this week to become a second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson in favor of the veteran Joe Flaccowho has played relatively well during his time as a starter. During his run at the helm in weeks 4 through 6, Flacco helped to a clean 3-0 record against the spread, including a pair of outright wins as an underdog and a pair of covers on the road.

The difference in this team’s offensive efficiency with Flacco under center is striking compared to the way this unit operates with Richardson leading the way. When he started working with the veteran, Indianapolis ranked in the top eight in EPA per dropback and scoring drive percentage over weeks 4-6. Conversely, this offense ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in EPA per play (23rd), success rate (24th), and scoring rate (26th) during the weeks Richardson was in charge.

Making that call was a smart move by Steichen while the Vikings were on the schedule. Minnesota is looking to play well after dropping its past two appearances and failing to cover for the first time this year. The Vikings still maintain one of the league’s top records against the spread (5-2).

Defensive issues have emerged for Minnesota in recent weeks, namely the difficulty in covering with much consistency. Miscommunication and glitches on the backend have resulted in significant amounts of distance. The team’s coverage unit has given up the highest open goal percentage (80.4%) and the highest number of passes with gains of more than 15 yards (27.0%).

WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts: Over 5.5 receptions + Over 62.5 receiving yards (+100)

When Joe Flacco was at the helm from weeks 4 to 6, Josh Downs looked like one of the NFL’s best receivers, with the third-highest PFF reception grade (89.7) at the position, powered by the top five in threat percentage (33.3%), receptions (24) and first-down catches (15). ).

Downs is undoubtedly a crucial part of this offense, and Flacco does well to highlight him, with the veteran targeting him nine or more times in every game they have played together this season. Downs sees a variety of matchups and target varieties in the slot, which has allowed him to shade these lines in every game with Flacco.

The Vikings’ recent messaging woes are personified in the safety struggles Jos Metellus. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores uses Metellus in different formations and looks, a role in which he performed well to start the year. But over the past two games, Metellus has only posted a PFF coverage grade of 38.9 and allowed the most open targets (10) and receptions of more than 15 yards (four) on the team.