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    Who will win the 2024 elections? Allan Lichtman predicts the next president

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    Historian Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, said he still thinks Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump but feels particularly nervous this year.

    “I’ve been doing this for 42 years and every four years I have butterflies in my stomach,” he said. “This year I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach.”

    Lichtman said the candidates’ neck-and-neck polling in key swing states doesn’t make him nervous. He relies on his “13 Keys to the White House” system and still believes Harris will be the country’s next president. However, in a live video interview with his son Sam on his YouTube channel, the presidential forecaster explained that he is concerned about the fragility of democracy, noting that the political system has actually not been around for very long.

    ‘Throughout human history, there has been almost no democracy. Nations were ruled by the divine right of kings, by birthright, or by sword and blood,” he said. “Democracy is a very recent development.”

    ➤ Allan Lichtman: Historian who accurately predicted nine of the last ten presidential elections makes his choice for 2024

    Both presidential campaigns have portrayed their rival as a “threat to democracy” during the 2024 cycle. Trump has called Harris a “communist” and Harris has called Trump a “fascist.” A Washington Post poll published in June found that more than 70% of Democratic and Republican voters view threats to democracy in the US as “extremely important.”

    Who is Allan Lichtman?

    Before receiving the title of “Distinguished Professor” from American University in Washington, D.C., Lichtman, 77, earned a Ph.D. specialized in modern American history and quantitative methods at Harvard.

    He is best known for helping to create the presidential prediction system, which uses thirteen true-or-false statements. If five or less are false, the incumbent party candidate is expected to win. If six or more are wrong, the challenging side is expected to win.

    This year, Lichtman said at least eight of the keys favor Harris.

    Using this system, he correctly predicted the outcome of every election since 1984, except the famously close race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

    What are the 13 keys?

    The keys and Lichtman’s assessment of each include:

    ◾ After the midterm elections, the incumbent party has more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. (False)

    ◾ There is no serious competition for the nomination for the incumbent party. (WHERE)

    ◾The incumbent party candidate is the incumbent president. (False)

    ◾ There is no significant third-party challenger. (WHERE)

    ◾ The short-term economy is strong. (WHERE)

    ◾ Long-term economic growth has been as good as the past two terms. (WHERE)

    ◾ The White House party has made major changes in national policy. (WHERE)

    ◾ There is no ongoing social unrest during the term. (WHERE)

    ◾ The White House government and party are not tainted by scandal (true)

    ◾ The current government has had no major failures in foreign or military affairs. (leans out of tune)

    ◾ The incumbent government has achieved great success in foreign or military affairs. (leans true)

    ◾ The incumbent party’s candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (False)

    ◾ The challenging party’s candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (WHERE)

    Reach Rachel Barber at [email protected] and follow her at

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