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Chance of heavy storms on Monday afternoon and evening

Vaseline November 4, 2024

BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) – Faint at best – that’s how you would most likely describe the rain chances over the past few days, which for many only really materialized on Saturday in the form of a few hundredths of an inch.

With a new week comes a few new chances for rain, one of which could bring some storms that pack a punch.

The driver

A decently supported upper level low with the resulting front has already wreaked havoc across parts of Oklahoma and far North Texas, and will continue its march eastward early in the week.

While most storms will move through Monday evening into Monday night, some are isolated... — While most storms will move through Monday evening into Monday night, some isolated activity may develop in the afternoon, leading to severe weather before sunset(KBTX)

There are two time frames to watch for for the Brazos Valley: one with the higher severe threat, the other with the higher chance of rain/storms.

Monday afternoon will be the typical watch-wait scenario, with the main show likely taking place to our north. Heating during the day power are producing some storms in our area, but they appear to be isolated, if at all. IF storms form, they will be capable of high winds, hail, and low tornado potential. Our better chance for rain and storms will come as the actual front shifts southward in the evening and overnight.

Monday night will bring widespread storms, some severe, and we are unlikely to encounter strong winds and small hail. For most, it will be necessary, good old fashioned rain that should drop widespread totals of 0.75″-1.25″, with localized totals of 2″ or more.

Although the severe threat is reduced as of Monday evening, we recommend that you have a number of ways to receive weather alerts, including your First Alert Weather app.

Election Day looks breezy and MUCH cooler, with no real problems getting to the polls.

On to the next one

Our next COLD front likely won’t arrive until this weekend or later, but the moisture battle in the Gulf continues Wednesday night through Thursday as a WARM front returns moisture from the Gulf and there is a scattered chance of rain to round out the week. Not as widespread and strong, but a chance to expect some more necessary rain.

More details as we become more available, as always. Let’s make it a great week!