If it feels like the NFL trade deadline should be here by now, your internal clock is well-tuned. In previous years, the deadline for deals came on the Tuesday after Week 8. Following an offseason vote, however, the league pushed back the deadline one week, giving teams an extra game to evaluate their roster and playoff chances before deciding whether they want to make moves.

With so many organizations growing more comfortable with the idea of making in-season trades, the hardest part for some general managers might be determining whether they should add or subtract talent at the deadline. While the extra week should help make each team’s playoff odds that much clearer, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) suggests the vast majority of teams are still facing an uncertain future. Five teams have at least a 95% chance of advancing to the playoffs, while seven have seen their playoff odds dip below 5%. The 1-7 Panthers have dropped below the 0.1% threshold our simulation uses to signify any chance at all.

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While we can’t see the future, let’s try to help all of those teams in the middle. Looking around the league, we’ll identify the teams that should be interested in adding players to their roster over the next week and the ones that should be pursuing draft picks in return for shipping off talent, and we’ll talk at more length about the teams in the middle.

Twelve teams require a real debate about what they should do at the deadline, either because their chances are murky or because they don’t have a habit of acting rationally. I’ll get to them in a moment, but let’s quickly run through the obvious teams on either side of the trade ledger (in alphabetical order by nickname):

Jump to a section:
Bengals | Broncos | Bucs
Cardinals | Colts | Cowboys
Dolphins | Falcons | Jets
Rams | Saints | Seahawks

Teams that clearly should add before the deadline

49ers, Bears, Bills, Chargers, Chiefs, Commanders, Eagles, Lions, Packers, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Vikings

We’ve already seen a handful of these teams make moves to add talent via trade over the past few weeks, including earlier this week, when the Ravens dealt for wideout Diontae Johnson and the Vikings acquired offensive tackle Cam Robinson. Those are the sorts of deals most likely to happen between now and the deadline. Both were veterans on contracts that expire at the end of the season. Both the Panthers and the Jaguars expect to be active in free agency next year, which would preclude them landing compensatory picks for the players they lose and justify locking in returns now. The Jaguars had essentially benched Robinson for Walker Little. The Panthers had already cut cornerback Troy Hill and were starting to integrate younger players into the lineup.

All 13 of the teams above have winning records and reasons to believe they can stay competitive deep into the second half and into the postseason. It would be a surprise if any of them did anything truly dramatic, like getting a first-round pick involved as part of a deal, given the players likely to be available. It would take something truly unexpected to make that happen, such as edge rusher Maxx Crosby or quarterback Matthew Stafford becoming available. I’d put those chances below 2%.

Teams that clearly should subtract before the deadline

Browns, Giants, Jaguars, Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, Titans

With 14 playoff spots and teams with as many as 10 games still to play, it’s tougher to find franchises that should definitely be giving up on 2024 and tearing down their roster. These seven teams combine to have an 18% chance of making it to the postseason, nearly half of which belongs to the Browns after their upset victory over the Ravens on Sunday.

We can comfortably put Cleveland on this list after it traded wide receiver Amari Cooper, although it could choose to stay put with its current roster and see whether Jameis Winston breathes life into a previously hopeless offense. The Jaguars, Panthers, Raiders and Titans have already started trading away veterans. The Patriots technically started dealing in the spring, if the Matthew Judon deal was included. That leaves the Giants, who have a 0.3% chance of making it to the postseason and some clear trade candidates in wideout Darius Slayton, offensive lineman Evan Neal and running back Devin Singletary.

Teams with big questions before the deadline

How much stock are you willing to put in a two-year trend? The Bengals took major steps forward during the second half of the 2021 and 2022 seasons, as they started 9-7 through their first eight games and went 13-4 afterward before going on deep postseason runs. After last week’s loss to the Eagles, Joe Burrow seemed to make it simple: All the Bengals have to do after their 3-5 start is go 7-2 down the stretch. Easy enough.

Burrow is holding up his end of the bargain, as he leads the league in Total QBR. The issue is the offense has only been great when Tee Higgins has been on the field. Burrow’s QBR is 19 points better with his second star receiver on the field. Cincinnati is averaging 0.24 expected points added (EPA) per play with Higgins on the field, which would be the league’s best mark. The offense is at minus-0.09 EPA per play without him, which would rank 27th and is in line with the Patriots’ overall numbers.

If the Bengals were going to give up on the season, it would be a logical move to consider trading Higgins, who seems likely to leave in free agency after the season. That trade wouldn’t have to be a contender, either; remember that the Bears gave up a second-round pick right about now for wideout Chase Claypool two years ago. That pick turned into star cornerback Joey Porter Jr. Higgins’ lower-body injuries and his status on the franchise tag would make that sort of trade more difficult, but he’s also a much better player than Claypool was at the time.

More realistically, if the Bengals keep Higgins, they need to consider adding help on defense. Trey Hendrickson still has more sacks (seven) than the rest of the team combined (five). Sam Hubbard has struggled, while Sheldon Rankins and 2023 first-round pick Myles Murphy have battled injuries. While we all know how creative defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo can get, Cincinnati can’t make a deep postseason run if its pass rush is Hendrickson or bust.

The verdict: The Bengals should add at the deadline but likely will stay put.

The Denver rebuild is ahead of schedule. A blowout victory over the Panthers in Week 8 took Sean Payton’s team to 5-3, and its plus-53 point differential suggests the success isn’t a fluke. The Broncos’ playoff chances have jumped from 12.6% before the season to 42.8%, and they’re in a position where they could realistically consider adding talent for the second half of the campaign.

Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph deserves a ton of credit for turning a unit that was the laughingstock of the league after allowing 70 points to the Dolphins last September. The Broncos have been the NFL’s best defense by EPA per play this season and are allowing quarterbacks to gain a league-low 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Defensive end Zach Allen has been playing at a Pro Bowl level, and Joseph has brought along young regulars including defensive backs Riley Moss and Ja’Quan McMillian over the past 12 months.

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While the offense is coming off its best performance of the season, the Broncos unfortunately don’t get to play the Panthers and their disastrous defense every week. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has shown flashes, but he’s averaging 5.9 yards per attempt, ahead of only Will Levis, Deshaun Watson and Jacoby Brissett. QBR has him 20th in the league by factoring in his scrambling, which has been a huge plus, but he ranks 27th on throws 20-plus yards downfield. There’s no reason to make significant judgments about his future after eight games, but he’s far from a finished product.

We’ve seen the Broncos get off to solid starts before fading in previous seasons, including a 5-4 mark in 2021 and a 6-5 run to begin 2023. They missed the playoffs both times. Are there reasons to think that’ll happen again? Maybe. Denver’s five victories have come over the Buccaneers, Jets, Raiders, Saints and Panthers, teams that are a combined 11-24 in games not involving the Broncos. It has played the league’s third-easiest schedule and will face its eighth-toughest slate from here on out. If the Broncos beat Baltimore or Kansas City over the next two weeks, they’ll get more attention.

The verdict: The Broncos should stay put at the deadline.

Less than a month ago, the Buccaneers were 3-1 and had just intercepted Kirk Cousins to regain the football with a three-point lead and 1:44 to go in the fourth quarter against Atlanta. Beating the Falcons would have taken them to 4-1. The Bucs were about to get a game against the Saints with rookie Spencer Rattler at quarterback, one Tampa Bay eventually would win by 24 points. Winning both of those games would have taken the Bucs to 5-1 and given them a stranglehold on both the division and its tiebreakers over their rivals for the NFC South title.

Pretty much everything that could have gone wrong since then has. The Bucs gave the ball back to the Falcons, who drove downfield for a game-tying score then won in overtime. Two weeks later, the Bucs lost Mike Evans to a midgame hamstring injury then saw fellow star wideout Chris Godwin go down after dislocating his ankle in garbage time. In the rematch with the Falcons, Tampa Bay gave Atlanta two short fields with turnovers and eventually lost 31-26. Now, Tampa Bay is the team in rough tiebreaker shape.

The FPI still gives the Bucs a 48% chance of making it to the postseason, although it might be underestimating the impact of losing Baker Mayfield’s top two targets at the same time. They could go after a wideout to replace Godwin, especially given he is a free agent after the season, but they’re probably set in the slot with Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard.

The bigger problem in recent weeks has been the defense, which has been getting picked apart and making too many mental mistakes. The Bucs have had too many moments in which receivers have found wide-open spots in zone coverage, and when they’ve played man coverage, opposing quarterbacks have gone 23-of-35 for 300 yards, six touchdowns and a 96.3 QBR. That QBR allowed in man coverage ranks 32nd in the league. They could have relied on Mayfield and the passing game to win shootouts — they face the league’s easiest schedule moving forward — but this might become a lost season without Evans and Godwin.

The verdict: The Bucs should subtract at the deadline.

The first-place Cardinals! After blowing out the Rams in Week 2, the Cards have won three games with late field goals, including last-second kicks in each of their past two contests. Kyler Murray is posting career-best marks in completion percentage, success rate as a passer, interception rate and sack rate. Rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has been in and out of games from week to week, but Arizona’s two- and three-tight-end sets have helped it protect Murray and run the football.

Given that the offense ranked 10th in EPA per play after Murray returned from injury last season, the bigger question was always about the defensive side of the ball. Jonathan Gannon’s Eagles took a big step forward in his second season as D-coordinator in 2022, before Gannon became Arizona’s coach last year, and while the Cardinals aren’t about to rack up 70 sacks in a season, their pass defense is improving.

Safety Budda Baker & Co. ranked 32nd in QBR allowed a season ago and stayed in last place through the first four weeks of 2024, but they’re up to 12th by the same metric over the past four games, which includes games against Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa. The defense still ranks last in third-down conversion rate over that stretch, but it has limited opposing offenses to six touchdowns on 15 trips inside the 20-yard line.

The Cardinals also have an obvious short-term need at edge rusher, where BJ Ojulari tore an ACL before the season. Dennis Gardeck, who had been part of the rotation on the edge, followed with his own ACL injury in the win over the Chargers. In a three-way tie for first place, Arizona shouldn’t be shopping for a 2024 rental in the hopes of trying to squeak its way into a playoff spot. Can it land an edge rusher such as Azeez Ojulari or Harold Landry who can be part of the roster for years to come? That seems more reasonable.

The Cardinals also should be scouting their schedule. According to the FPI, they have played the league’s toughest schedule so far. They face the third-easiest schedule from here on out.

The verdict: The Cardinals should add at the deadline.

In the middle of another season near .500, the Colts responded to second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson’s decision to ask out of the game for a third-down snap during Sunday’s loss to the Texans with an even more dramatic decision, as they benched him after 10 pro starts. Richardson’s accuracy has been scattershot, and he just posted the worst completion percentage in the first half of a game since 2000, but he’s also averaging 12.3 air yards per throw and 16.2 yards per completion, both comfortably the highest marks in football.

The Colts knew Richardson was a project coming out of college, and it would be incredibly shortsighted to bench him for his performance on the field after 217 career pass attempts, even given some of the frustrating things we’ve seen from him on the field. Benching him suggests they were worried about the locker room turning on him because of his play and/or his decision to take a snap off.

Now, they turn to a 39-year-old Joe Flacco, who was the model of stability earlier this season when filling in for Richardson. Can Flacco keep that up? I’m skeptical. He threw only one interception in 108 pass attempts, a rate that history tells us he won’t sustain for long. Flacco won games with a great Browns defense last season — he’s better than Deshaun Watson was a year ago or Richardson is right now — but he isn’t about to lead the Colts to a title.

If Flacco can stay steady, the Colts should be a competitive team. They’ve just gotten two stars back from injuries in running back Jonathan Taylor and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. Samuel Womack and Jaylon Jones have solidified what appeared to be the team’s weakest position at cornerback. Is there enough here to trade for a player who can make an impact? Probably not, but the Colts shouldn’t give up on what they have.

The verdict: The Colts should stay put (and not trade Richardson) at the deadline.

It has been an ugly start to the season for the Cowboys. They can’t run the ball. Dak Prescott’s interception variance has veered the wrong way, as the $60 million quarterback has thrown eight picks in seven games. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is coming off his best game of the season, but wideout Brandin Cooks is on injured reserve and rookie first-round pick Tyler Guyton has struggled at left tackle.

Oh, and that’s comfortably the positive side of the ledger in Big D. This defense is a disaster. Dallas ranks 30th in EPA per play allowed, 29th in QBR allowed and 29th in success rate against the run. It has been without cornerback DaRon Bland all season and hasn’t had star pass rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence for the past three games. The unit wasn’t any good before they got injured, either.

Could the defense turn things around in the second half? Potentially. Getting Parsons back will obviously help. A unit that thrived in creating takeaways under Dan Quinn the past few seasons has forced only five turnovers in seven games, which should improve in the second half. Coordinator Mike Zimmer’s defense has recovered one of the six fumbles that have hit the ground on defense, which is more bad luck than anything else.

The schedule gets a little easier from here on out, and after a trip to Atlanta this week, four of their next five games are at home. If the defense doesn’t improve, though, they might not want to face the fans in Arlington so often. This feels like a season that already has gotten away from the Cowboys, although it wouldn’t be shocking if they made a superficial move to add a running back at the deadline to try to spark some interest and allow team owner Jerry Jones to brag about opening his checkbook.

The verdict: The Cowboys should subtract at the deadline but likely will add.

The case for the Dolphins for most of the season has been to survive until Tua Tagovailoa returns. After going 1-4 without their starting quarterback as he recovered from a concussion, they got him back for a winnable home game against the Cardinals. His presence certainly sparked the offense back to life, as the Fins produced 377 yards and scored a season-high 27 points. Up two scores in the fourth quarter, it felt like they had done enough to earn a victory in Tagovailoa’s first game back.

They hadn’t and didn’t. The Cardinals scored on an eight-play touchdown drive to get back within two points, and after the ensuing Miami drive stalled at midfield, Kyler Murray converted two third downs and a second-and-15 to burn five minutes off the clock and get the Cards in place for the game-winning field goal.

The demoralizing loss raises questions about whether the Dolphins can really hope to compete this season. Frankly, the offense wasn’t very good even before Tagovailoa’s injury, although it was better Sunday. Nobody on the defense has more than two sacks, and the Dolphins’ best pass rusher over the past two weeks might be cornerback Jalen Ramsey. They have only been able to stay afloat by allowing the league’s second-stingiest conversion rate on third down. And given that they rank 24th in EPA per play on first and second down and third on third down, I’m not counting on them to get off the field quite as often from here on out.

Originally, this was supposed to be a season in which Miami needed to stay afloat until edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb returned from the serious injuries they suffered late last season. Phillips made it back for the opener before suffering another season-ending injury, while Chubb reportedly isn’t close to returning. A loss at Buffalo this week would put the Dolphins four games back of their divisional rivals and without any hope of salvaging the tiebreaker. If they lose that one, I would argue it’s time to start preparing for 2025.

The verdict: The Dolphins should subtract at the deadline.

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Was benching Anthony Richardson the right move for the Colts?

Stephen A. Smith, Chris “Mad Dog” Russo and Jeff Saturday discuss the Colts’ decision to bench Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco as starting quarterback.

Having won their first three games in the final moments before beating the Panthers by 18 points, the Falcons’ first impressive victory against a competitive football team came on Sunday. They won the turnover battle 3-0 against the Bucs, and Kirk Cousins threw four touchdown passes. Cousins still doesn’t seem 100 percent given how rarely the Falcons use him in play-action — he is now a year out from his Achilles tendon tear — but he’s certainly good enough to win games.

I’m torn. In first place and with a 70.1% chance of winning the NFC South, Atlanta has the profile of a team that should be adding talent at the deadline. But is it really going to make a difference? It already has the tiebreaker with Tampa Bay after sweeping the Bucs, while the Saints and the Panthers are a combined 0-10 over the past five weeks. The Falcons probably don’t need to add any players to win the division.

At the same time, is there anyone out there they can really add to have a hope of winning the Super Bowl? Cousins’ inconsistency and performances in high-profile games don’t lend themselves to the idea of a title push. The Falcons added much-needed help on defense by trading for edge rusher Matthew Judon and signing safety Justin Simmons before the season, but they have a gruesome six sacks in eight games. A defense that can’t rush the passer simply doesn’t have any hope of making a deep playoff run.

Adding somebody to play alongside Judon, who has still been in a rotational role, could help. This team has been trying to find a steady pass rush since the John Abraham days (2006 to 2012). Again, the Falcons shouldn’t be looking for player who is a free agent after the season. But another defender to get after the quarterback would solidify their chances of both winning their division and the home playoff game that follows.

The verdict: The Falcons should add at the deadline.

In a vacuum, 2-6 teams on a five-game losing streak with a 9.7% chance of making it to the playoffs shouldn’t be focusing on adding players at the trade deadline. The Jets already have made two additions over the past few weeks by dealing for wide receiver Davante Adams and finally convincing offseason trade acquisition Haason Reddick to make his debut for the organization. Both were in uniform Sunday, but neither could help Aaron Rodgers & Co. beat the struggling Patriots on the road.

And yet, these are the 2024 Jets, who believe they’re only one trick or addition away from suddenly being a Super Bowl team. All they have to do is fire their coach. Or replace struggling kicker Greg Zuerlein. Or start chugging cayenne pepper and water. If any franchise can contort itself into believing a 2-6 team can be one player away from living up to what were always impossible expectations, it’s these Jets.

To be fair, the evidence suggests they have been a little unlucky. They’re 1-4 in one-score games. They’ve dropped passes at the league’s second-highest rate, although their opponents have responded by posting the sixth-highest drop rate on the other side of the ball. They are a 50-yard field goal and a fourth-down stop away from starting 4-4, and that’s going to be a powerful story for the organization to tell itself when its prior one was being a Super Bowl contender.

With a soon-to-be-41-year-old quarterback whose future is uncertain after the season, they had might as well go for it now. Former coach Robert Saleh already has paid for the disappointment of the Rodgers era with his job, and if things don’t turn around, general manager Joe Douglas is likely to follow Saleh out the door. After Thursday’s home game against the Texans, the Jets have 10 days off, followed by matchups with the Cardinals and Colts and then the bye in Week 12. Could the extra practice time convince the Jets they’ll be able to integrate a new player into the fold before their final six weeks of the season? Sure.

The verdict: The Jets should subtract at the deadline but likely will add.

One week ago, it felt like the future of the Rams was up for grabs. Reports suggested they were open to trading star wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who was about to return from his most recent ankle injury. Much seemed to hang on whether they could beat a 5-1 Vikings team at home.

Mission accomplished! Both Kupp and Puka Nacua returned to the lineup, and after allowing two touchdowns in the first quarter, L.A.’s defense settled down and yielded two field goals the rest of the way. A 30-20 victory seemed to take Kupp off the trade market. While the Rams are still in last place in the NFC West, the three teams ahead of them are all 4-4, meaning they could jump from worst to first in one week.

If the Rams were open to moving Kupp, that likely was telling us more about next season than 2024. He could plausibly be a cap casualty, and if that’s where general manager Les Snead believes things are going, it could be better to get a Day 2 pick to move on. I’m not sure one victory should really change that calculus very much, although again, I’m at least a little skeptical they were really all that desperate to trade him.

Instead, I could see L.A. moving on from a few of its marginal players. It likely will try to find a home for cornerback Tre’Davious White, who was benched after a rough start to the season. Maybe Snead tries to add offensive line depth. Trading Kupp or making that classic Rams splash for a young superstar, though, seems unlikely.

The verdict: The Rams should add and subtract at the deadline, but only at the bottom of their roster.

There are the rules for every other team and the rules for the Saints, who exist in their own universe. While they’ve gotten younger this season, any other team would face facts after looking at one of the league’s oldest rosters and what is likely to be a fourth consecutive season without a playoff trip. If this team has any ambitions of doing anything besides winning nine games and serving as a monument to salary cap restructures, it needs to give up the ghost and start what is probably going to be a multiyear rebuild.

General manager Mickey Loomis isn’t doing that. The Saints signed running back Alvin Kamara to an extension to create short-term cap space next season, suggesting they’re not looking at 2025 as a teardown year. They’re simply not financially capable of cutting everyone who is underperforming in one fell swoop. And while the offense looked great before quarterback Derek Carr and a handful of other starters went down injured, the defense has taken a step backward, dropping from seventh in EPA per play last season to 16th.

It looked like cornerback was a position of strength from which the Saints could deal, but Paulson Adebo broke his leg and will miss the remainder of the season, while Marshon Lattimore is now battling a hamstring injury. With a roster already torn up by injuries, it’s difficult to imagine New Orleans doing anything drastic. After all, it’s expecting to compete in 2025!

The verdict: The Saints should subtract at the deadline but likely will stay put.

Who are the Seahawks, exactly? After beating the Broncos, Patriots and Dolphins to begin the season, they’ve gone 1-4 since while being outscored by 35 points. It’s one thing to get blown out by the Bills and 49ers, but Seattle allowed the visiting Giants to rack up 420 yards and 24 first downs in a 29-20 loss. The Seahawks couldn’t get out of their own way last week in an ugly home loss to the Bills.

They’ve been the league’s third-most pass-happy team on early downs, which has boosted quarterback Geno Smith’s cumulative numbers, but the offense is subsequently facing the longest average third down (8.7 yards) of any team and converting at a below-average rate as a result. Getting stuck in third-and-long has been a mess for a team already down to its fourth-string right tackle, although the hope is Abraham Lucas and George Fant will join the team in the next couple of weeks.

There’s a feeling new coach Mike Macdonald is still figuring out who he does and doesn’t like on the defensive side of the ball, where the Seahawks don’t seem in a rush to give back Tre Brown his starting job after he missed a game with an ankle injury. There should be a bigger role in the second half for rookie first-round pick Byron Murphy, so they could choose to move on one of their defensive linemen if they feel secure about what they have with Murphy taking more snaps.

More realistically, given that the Seahawks have been so inconsistent, the logical step would be to spend the rest of the season evaluating their current roster. General manager John Schneider made an aggressive trade to add help at linebacker when he sent a fourth-round pick to swap offseason addition Jerome Baker for Ernest Jones, a move that would seem to indicate they intend to sign the pending free agent to an extension. They paid Baker $5 million for five games in a Seattle uniform. I’d be surprised if the Seahawks did much more before the deadline, given that their playoff odds have dropped to 17.2%.

The verdict: The Seahawks should stay put at the deadline.