Topline

The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is essentially even, with the latest New York Times pre-election survey showing Harris narrowly ahead (but within the margin of error) in four of the seven states, while Trump is at the top. one and a tie in two others – while an Emerson College poll showed the opposite on Monday.

Key facts

Big number

1.1 points. That’s Harris’ lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.

Tangent

Harris has a 49%-48% lead among voters in all seven battleground states, according to a new HarrisX/Forbes poll from Thursday, a statistical tie — but 14% of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning there is plenty of room for the race to change.

Important background

Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance, dramatically changing Democrats’ fortunes. Prior to the shift, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of seven (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

Read more

Trump vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Maintains Lead in 4 New Polls (Forbes)

Trump-Harris polls in Michigan 2024: Harris narrowly leads in one of her key states (Forbes)

Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has less than 1 point lead in polling averages (Forbes)

North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Nearly Tied in the New 7th Swing State (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Polls in Georgia 2024: Most Surveys Show Trump Ahead in Crucial Swing State (Forbes)

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Narrow Lead, But Struggles With Latino Voters (Forbes)

Trump-Harris polls in Wisconsin 2024: Latest surveys show Trump with slight lead (Forbes)

Trump-Harris polls in Arizona 2024: Trump has advantage in latest Swing State poll (Forbes)