Betting favorites and home teams put together a strong winning week 9, going 13-1 straight and 10-4 against the spread (ATS) heading into the Monday Night Football game on November 4. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) are the biggest underdog of the week as they go on the road against the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chief (7-0), who remains the only undefeated NFL team.

The NFL standings show that the Chiefs, Bills, Steelers and Texans lead the AFC divisions, while the Ravens, Chargers and Broncos are the other teams with winning records and current Wild Card teams as the playoffs begin this week before the started in the middle of the regular season.

Football odds on Monday evening

Pro football chances from FanDuel Sportsbook and the best online sportsbooks are updated periodically and are subject to change, including props and live betting.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5), over/under 45.5 points

Other leading online sportsbooks show the Chiefs as the -9 point favorite.

How to watch

• Buccaneers-Chiefs: ABC and ESPN 8:20 PM ET and live streaming on ESPN+

NFL favorites had another strong week for bettors betting on the odds, spread and moneyline. Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports provides additional matchups and advanced stats to support a double-digit win for the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

• Kansas City’s offense has a league-best 49% success rate, and its ground game is a favorable matchup against Tampa Bay’s defense, which is surrendering 5.2 yards per rush (30th).
• Patrick Mahomes will get protection with Buccaneers interior defender Vita Vea, taken out by C Creed Humphrey, who leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency. Tampa Bay edge rusher Yaya Diaby has 31 pressures (10th), but he will be limited by right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who ranks 17th in pass blocking efficiency.
• The Buccaneers defense is surrendering a league-high EPA/Target of 0.71 to tight ends and they will be competing against TE Travis Kelce, whose 65% success rate ranks second.
• Tampa Bay’s offense is without wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who rank third and 16th in success rate, respectively. WR Jalen McMillan led the Buccaneers’ wide receivers with 7 targets last week, but he will be outdone by Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie, who gets 0.68 yards per coverage snap (10th).
• Baker Mayfield won’t be able to rely on his ground game without his WRs, as Kansas City’s defense is giving up a low 3.0 yards per rush on running back carries this season.
• Our model favors the Chiefs by 11.7 points, with a projected total of 43.5 points, and Kansas City is sporting an 80-35-1 ATS situation on Monday night. The Chiefs also tend to play better after a point spread loss (9-1 ATS recently, including 3-0 ATS this season) than after a good performance.

Buccaneers-Chiefs player props and picks

• TB QB Baker Mayfield passing yards: over/under 236.5, rushing 16.5
• KC QB Patrick Mahomes passing yards: O/U 247.5, rushing 18.5
• TB RB Bucky Irving rushing yards: O/U 33.5, receiving 15.5
• TB RB Rachaad White rushing yards: O/U 28.5, receiving 25.5
• KC RB Kareem Hunt rushing yards: O/U 62.5
• TB TE Cade Otten receiving yards: O/U 53.5
• KC TE Travis Kelce receiving yards: O/U 61.5
• KC WR DeAndre Hopkins receiving yards: O/U 44.5
• KC WR Xavier Worthy receiving yards: O/U 36.5
• KC TE Noah Gray receiving yards: O/U 23.5

The top online sportsbooks report Bucs TE Cade Otten as the highest-stakes player About his receiving yards and receptions (4.5). Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt is the hottest running back to go About his rushing yards and attempts (16.5). Chiefs TE Travis Kelce is the most popular bet score a touchdownand Dr.’s matchup stats. Bob Sports suggest Kelce could clear 61.5 receiving yards and/or 5.5 receptions.

The player prop picks posted on these NFL preview pages at Forbes scored and earned big in Week 4, Week 5, Week 6, Week 7 and last Monday night for both receivers in Week 8. Sunday Week 9’s player prop cashed in as well on another receiving sails over his receiving yards prop. I’m passing on a player prop, but more bettors are banking on Bucs TE Cade Otten to have a big game along with Chiefs TE Travis Kelce.

Additional matchup and statistical support from Pro Football Focus notes that Tampa Bay’s passing attack was in the top eight in the EPA per dropback through Week 6, but has since fallen to 15th, with top receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both injured and out for Monday’s game. game against the Chiefs. The Bucaneers running backs are a big part of the passing game, combining for 54 receptions, 491 receiving yards and 21 receiving conversions, all of which rank No. 1 among running back groups. But the Chiefs defense is stingy against RBs in coverage, ranking No. 3 with a 32% success rate when running backs are targeted.

The Buc’s defense ranks No. 2 in the NFL with a 48% blitz rate and generates 14 sacks (No. 2). Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is one of three qualifying quarterbacks who have yet to produce a single big throw against the blitz this season.

NFL Conference Odds

The Chiefs (+195) are the current favorites to win the AFC and advance to Super Bowl LIX on February 9, 2025 in New Orleans. The Ravens (+300) and division leaders Bills (+400), Texans (+1000) and Steelers (+1600) are the AFC’s top challengers. Despite a 4-5 record, the Bengals (+1900) have market support and the Chargers (+2000) are next with a 5-3 record.

The Buccaneers (+4600) are currently a sure bet to win the conference as they chase other NFC teams, including NFC South leader Atlanta Falcons (6-3). If the playoffs were to start midseason, the NFC wild card teams would be the Eagles (6-2), Vikings (6-2) and Packers (6-3).

The favorites to win the NFC are currently the 7-1 division-leading Lions (+240), Eagles (+600), Vikings (+850) and division-leading Falcons and Hail Mary Commanders both +1000 and Washington are trying to go from last place a season ago to NFC East champions. The San Francisco 49ers (+450) are still a top contender despite a 4-4 record, but are only a half-game behind the Arizona Cardinals (5-4) in the NFC West, with the Cardinals (+2600 ) receive little support in the conference futures market.

More sports betting news, stats, player props and betting information as the NFL attracts more viewing and betting action, with player props providing extra engagement, entertainment and interest.

You can bet on it.

MORE FROM FORBES

ForbesWeek 9 NFL picks, props and odds plus Lions-Packers in first placeBy means of Jay GinsbachForbes2024 Breeders’ Cup results, payouts and Sierra Leone’s classic winning rideBy means of Jay GinsbachForbesTrump-Harris betting markets and swing state odds with US president projectionsBy means of Jay Ginsbach