I should have done the mic drop in 2022.

Picking the winners in the top two races, both of which were painfully close, should have been the swan song, the ride into the sunset in my oracular career. But no, I couldn’t rest on my laurels by making the right choice for Governor Joe Lombardo (1.5 percent gain) and Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (less than 1 percent gain).

So here we go again.

I usually start these prediction columns by reminding you of my historical brilliance – Harry Reid in 2010, Dean Heller in 2012, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden winning in 2016 and 2020 respectively – as if that might ward off the “I told you so.” so mafia in muskland and the real world if i’m wrong. A fool’s errand, right?

@Itweetinmypyjamas And @Ihaveendlessmemestoposttomockyou are obviously not the target group. In this polarized world we live in, the mindless vitriol is getting worse, it is becoming impossible to penetrate the silos of Validation Culture.

But once you start a tradition, it’s hard to simply end it because you’re afraid you’re wrong. (What do that feels?)

I’ve never missed a presidential call in Nevada (I messed up the election), but this one has been the hardest since I started doing this – more on that below. But that prediction and all others are based not only on early voting data, but also on historical experience, my sources on both sides and, yes, my gut feeling. I think it is wrong not to explain reasons for predictions as well. So:

Elections are, as always, about many things, but when distilled, they are about mathematics. And the math this year is confusing.

Early voting is unlike any other because this data was tracked in such detail and I started analyzing it. Typically, Democrats, fueled by the machine Harry Reid built, erect a firewall in densely populated Clark County designed as a bulwark against losses in the fifteen red counties, with Washoe County often deciding who wins. But this cycle, in which former President Donald Trump and Co. discovering that it might be smart to encourage Republicans to vote early and even by mail (the horror!) has lifted the Republican mood. The reverse is true and the question is whether the Democrats can overcome a lead of more than 43,000 Republicans as I write this.

I won’t repeat much of my analysis of this – you can read it on the blog – which concludes that Trump probably has a 30,000 vote lead at the moment. But my theory on the matter is that there are still many ballots to be counted in Clark County that favor the Democrats, and that the partial cannibalization of the Republican Party on Election Day will propel some Democrats to victory, but perhaps just like others, it won’t quite get there. Which is which?

I can see up and down that the races could go either way, but I’ve decided to trust the Reid Machine, which hasn’t lost in four straight presidential cycles and will somehow get enough ballots in the next few days to do what he always does. do. All this will fall apart if India does not elect Vice President Kamala Harris and if the machine cannot recover enough ballots – not only would Trump win, but there will be voting disruptions.

Close races are crazy to try to predict, but you also have to be a little crazy to follow politics for nearly four decades. Just sing the chorus over and over again.

Forward!

—-President: I call this the Unicorn Election because of the unusual voting patterns. It’s very difficult to know what will happen to mail-in ballots and election day turnout with so many Republicans voting early. But here’s what I do know: Both sides — at least people who understand the data on both sides — believe this will be close. That’s because, if past is prologue in the mail ballot era (last two cycles), tens of thousands of ballots will arrive between now and Friday (the deadline). It’s a simple question: Can Democrats catch up? It’s really a matter of money, and I know people on both sides who have analyzed the data and can’t decide. For days I went back and forth in my own head, my eyes glassy with numbers, models and extrapolations. The key to these elections has always been which side the non-major party voters break as they have become the plurality in the state. They will make up about 30 percent of the electorate and if they move enough toward Harris, she will win Nevada. I think so, and I’ll tell you why: Many people assume that now that the Republican Party is overtaking the Democrats in voter registration, the automatic voter registration plan being pushed by the Democrats that automatically registers people as nonpartisan ( unless they take sides)) at the DMV had been a bust for the party. But I don’t think so. There are many non-partisan closet Democrats who have been deliberately registered as non-partisan by Democrat-oriented groups. The machine knows who they are and ensures that they vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover voting that this issue will also cause. I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But that is not the case. I have often predicted against my own preferences; history doesn’t lie. I just have a feeling she will catch up, but I also believe – and please remember this – that it won’t be clear who won here on election night, so block out the nasty election denial nabobs. It will be very, very close. Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of these candidates, 3.3 percent.

—-Senate: I don’t think anyone has run a better race than Senator Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has this cycle. It went almost smoothly. She raised a fortune but spent it early after Sam Brown won the primaries by bombarding him on abortion and his, ahem, evolving positions. He could never gain a foothold and was forced to prostrate himself before Trump and right-wing idiots. It was almost sad for a man with a remarkable story of survival and dedication to move on with his life. The truth, however, is that national Republicans have settled on Brown, a relatively recent transplant from Texas who has never won a race, because the Republican bench here is so thin. He was never among the top of the GOP heap, which was more focused on Montana and Ohio. I never believed the polls that had Rosen in double digits or high single digits. That’s just not how we roll in Senate races in Nevada. But she will win and this one might be over on election night. Prediction: Rosen, 50 percent; Brown, 45 percent; others and none of the above, 5 percent.

—-House: The three Democratic-held congressional seats in the South should not be close to each other. Republicans, whose seats had been decimated by Democrats in many cycles, had to settle for second-rate (generous?) candidates who couldn’t come close to matching the incumbents’ fundraising. Representatives Dina Titus, Steven Horsford and Susie Lee will winbut their races could be closer than expected. They all won in 2022, a bad year in which they could have been vulnerable. Mark Robertson didn’t do much against Titus two years ago, losing by 6 percentage points; Lee only won by 4 percentage points in 2022, and Drew Johnson was a surprise primary winner this year and was not considered a serious contender by local or national Republicans; Horsford won by 4 percentage points against a poor candidate in 2022, and the ever-ambitious and party-switching John Lee hasn’t spent much to beat him this cycle. Democrats have a small lead in each of the districts – Susie Lee’s is almost even – but the remaining votes for Clark should be heavily Democratic and create some distance. If any of these targets remain within 5 percentage points, as seems possible, they will be addressed in 2026. Rep. Mark Amodei should win fairly easily against self-funding nonpartisan Greg Kidd.

—- Legislature: The conventional wisdom all year has been that the Senate would win a supermajority, while the Assembly was 50-50 to go that route. This is mainly structural (hello, gerrymandering) and has less to do with the candidates, as Governor Joe Lombardo’s team has recruited a number of hopefuls. In the Senate, Democrats need to gain one seat, and they will almost certainly take over outgoing GOP Sen. Heidi Seevers O’Gara, as Democrats have a large voting lead (5 percent) and turnout is unlikely to improve. So I say Democratic lawmaker Angie Taylor defeats Michael Ginsburg. Democrats were hoping to defeat Republican Sen. Carrie Buck, whose unhinged social media rants make her look like a crazed version of Marjorie Taylor Greene. But Buck will win after building a 5 percent lead over Jennifer Atlas. So the supermajority comes down to Democratic Senator Dallas Harris and Republican Lori Rogich, a quality candidate – the Dem voter lead is quite small, but I think Harris persists as more Democratic votes roll in. So 13-8 becomes 14-7. In the Assembly, Team Lombardo must ensure that all Republicans keep their seats and only flip one to avoid a supermajority there. Unlike many insiders, I still think the Democrats have a shot at a supermajority, depending on how big the mail drop is in the coming days. But ultimately, I don’t think the Democrats can hold on 28-14 becomes 25-17where one or two incumbent directors lose their seats.

—-Miscellaneous: I think Shelley Berkley will be the next mayor of Las Vegasbut it may be closer than people think – Victoria Seaman apparently goes to every event every day. But even though it’s a nonpartisan race, there are too many Democrats who like Berkley and don’t like Zeeman in a Democratic city. All voting questions were passed, except question 3what the ranked choice/open primaries question is. Conventional wisdom says it should pass because proponents have spent a fortune. But something tells me they have oversold and the enemies have done enough to create fear of change and chaos. (The pro-Q3 ads that make it seem like veterans no longer have rights may be the most dishonest ad I’ve seen in a long time. But maybe it will pay off.)

Feel free to congratulate me on my choices when I’m right, or tease me when I’m wrong – it happens. But not on Twitter because, like most people who want to preserve their sanity, I won’t look.

Jon Ralston is the CEO and editor of The Indies.