Jon Ralston, the editor of the The Nevada Independent and an expert on politics and elections in the Silver State, predicted Kamala Harris would win the swing state by razor-thin margins — if the Democratic candidate can overcome a significant early Republican voting lead.

In 2022, Ralston correctly predicted that Republican Joe Lombardo would win the governor’s race against Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak. He also correctly predicted that Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto would win her re-election bid in the same election. As in the 2024 election, the candidates were neck-and-neck in both races until Election Day.

Ralston also correctly predicted that Nevada would go with the Democratic presidential candidate in both 2016 and 2020.

On Tuesday, Ralston predicted Harris would prevail with 48.5% of the vote, while former President Donald Trump would win 48.2%. According to data from the Nevada Secretary of State, this scenario would be a significantly closer election than the 2020 race, when Biden won Nevada by more than 33,000 votes.

Recent polls appear to be in line with Ralston’s prediction, showing the two candidates were in a dead heat the weekend before Election Day, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregator.

However, Harris must overcome a substantial Republican lead after Nevada’s early voting period ended last Friday. In the last few elections, Democrats have dominated early voting in Nevada, building what Ralston called a “firewall” in the party stronghold of Clark County — the state’s most populous county and home to thousands of Democrats in urban Las Vegas .

But during this election cycle, Republicans embraced the process. In a remarkable turnaround from previous elections, registered Republicans have returned more than 45% of all early ballots, according to the most recent data from the State Secretary. Registered Democrats made up just 27.7% of early voters, while independents and other parties made up 26.8%.

But Ralston predicted Harris will begin to close that gap as more ballots arrive from Clark County in the coming days. She will then have to rely on winning over independent voters and in-person turnout to gain the upper hand on Election Day.

Nevada’s seven electoral votes are critical to both campaigns; if they win there, they only need to win in one of the other states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina or Georgia to prevail.

Ralston also predicted that incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen would prevail over her Republican challenger, Sam Brown. Most recent poll shows Rosen with a comfortable lead against Brown, a relatively recent Texas transplant.

Ralston’s prediction – and his stellar track record – have drawn comparisons to a recent poll published in the Des Moines Register by veteran local pollster J. Ann Selzer, which showed Harris winning the Midwestern state by three points.

Most polls during the election cycle have shown Trump continuing his dominance in Iowa, but Selzer accurately predicted his victories in 2016 and 2020. In the last presidential election, she accurately predicted Trump’s seven-point lead in the Hawkeye State, despite national polls showing margins showed. much closer.