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Nate Silver Gives Election Prediction as Favorite to Win Changes
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Nate Silver Gives Election Prediction as Favorite to Win Changes

Polling expert Nate Silver has issued a new election forecast just hours before the polls open, with a new favorite to win with the race still neck and neck.

According to Silver’s prediction, Vice President Kamala Harris now has a 50 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to former President Donald Trump’s 49.6 percent. According to the forecast, Harris is expected to win 271 votes, while Trump is expected to win 267 votes.

The model shows a 0.3 percent chance of a tie in the Electoral College, in which case the election would move to the U.S. House of Representatives, where the newly elected members of Congress would have to be sworn in and then vote on who becomes president. . In this scenario, Silver said, Trump would likely win.

Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.

It comes after Silver’s prediction on Monday showed Trump was the favorite to win the election, with a 50.4 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to Harris’s 49.2 percent. The day before, Trump had a 52.6 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 47 percent.

At the end of September, Silver predicted Harris was the favorite to win the election, but in early October the vice president saw her chances plummet as Trump made gains in crucial battleground states. The race has remained pretty much the same since then.

“When I say that the odds in this year’s presidential race are as close to 50/50 as possible, I am not exaggerating,” Silver wrote in his most recent newsletter.

Trump is now expected to win in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada, while Harris is expected to take Michigan and Wisconsin, with Pennsylvania almost tied.

trump harris
This combination of file photos shows Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, left, speaking at a campaign rally on Oct. 18, 2024, in Detroit, and Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris, right, speaking at…


AP

Other polls also show the race as tight, but give Harris a narrow lead. For example, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows that Harris currently has a 50 percent chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 49 percent, with Harris at 270 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 268. That of the Economist The forecast shows the same forecast.

Meanwhile, trackers from… The New York Times‘ and the BBC show Harris and Trump within 1 point of each other, but give Harris an edge.

It comes after Marist College released their long-awaited final polls in Midwestern states on Friday, which showed Harris three points ahead of Trump in Michigan, two points in Pennsylvania and two points in Wisconsin, making her likely to win the election. .

But not all polls were so positive for Harris. An Atlas Intel poll conducted between November 3 and 4 showed Trump leading in every swing state, with the former president as much as 5 points ahead in Arizona. Meanwhile, an Echelon Insights survey released last week showed Trump with a five-point lead in Pennsylvania, which is crucial to win and claim victory. However, all seven swing states are still within the margin of error and anyone can win.

But FiveThirtyEight warned that while the polls are close, it doesn’t necessarily mean the overall outcome will be close.

“A close race at the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close,” the pollsters wrote on their website.