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Donald Trump betting odds rise 24 hours before Election Day
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Donald Trump betting odds rise 24 hours before Election Day

Former President Donald Trump’s odds of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris are rising less than 24 hours before Election Day, according to an online betting platform.

Polymarket, which is partly funded by former Trump backer Peter Thiel, showed the former president a 58 percent chance of winning as of Monday afternoon, while Harris has a 42 percent chance. The odds are based on the ‘collective wisdom’ of betting on the candidates, and not on external factors such as opinion polls.

“Trump’s chances are on the rise again,” Polymarket wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “Tomorrow is election day.”

Newsweek We reached out to both campaigns via email on Monday for comment.

Bets on Donald Trump are rising in the 2024 election
Donald Trump during a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, on November 4, 2024. Trump’s odds of winning have risen since Sunday on prediction platform Polymarket.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

While Trump reached 67 percent on Polymarket on October 30, the former president’s chances subsequently plummeted for several days. His chances had dropped to 53 percent early Sunday, just hours after one of the nation’s most accurate pollsters released a poll that shockingly showed Harris winning Iowa by 3 percentage points.

Last month, reports emerged indicating that election odds on Polymarket could have been manipulated. The platform later identified a single French citizen as the owner of four accounts that placed more than $50 million in bets on Trump. The independent. Polymarket does not allow US users to bet on the elections.

On gambling platform Kalshi, which does allow bets from American users, election odds have followed a similar trajectory. While Trump held a 64 percent to 36 percent lead last week, his chances fell sharply a short time later and the candidates tied within hours of the Iowa poll’s release. Trump led Harris 54 percent to 46 percent on the platform as of Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, Harris was slightly favored on PredictIt, where the vice president had a 54 percent chance of becoming the first woman to become president at the time of publication.

With more than 77.3 million early and absentee ballots already cast nationwide, polls continue to indicate the race remains neck-and-neck. An average of recent national polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight showed Harris with a slim lead of 1.1 percent as of Monday. The poll picture was similar in all seven battleground states.

In the FiveThirtyEight averages on Monday, Harris had a 1 percent lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump had a 1 percent lead in North Carolina and Georgia and a 2 percent lead in Arizona. The candidates were tied in Pennsylvania and Nevada. The recent results have been within the margins of error for almost all polls.