With less than a week until Election Day, voters in Michigan’s latest Fox News Poll are likely to find Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by 2 points in the expanded vote. That’s partly due to the fact that Michigan voters are divided over who can best handle the economy.

The new survey shows Harris with 48% support among likely voters, Trump at 46% and third-party candidates at 5%. When it comes to just the two leading candidates, the race is tied: 49% each.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump over the summer, but he remains on the ballot in Michigan. He has 3% support, including 4% of bipartisan Trump supporters and 1% of Harris supporters defecting to him.

Among registered voters, Harris is up four points in the expanded ballot, a shift of six points since July, when Trump was up two points. The July results were released shortly after President Joe Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, but before she was finally the nominee and Kennedy dropped out.

All Harris-Trump vote choice results among registered and likely voters are within the margin of error.

FOX NEWS POLL: MORE HARRIS THAN TRUMP SUPPORTS THINK VOTERS WILL BE COUNTED ACCURATELY AND ACCEPT THE OUTCOME

Given the presence of several other candidates, it stands to reason that neither candidate will match their party’s 2020 vote share – 50.6% Biden, 47.8% Trump. The conventional wisdom is that support for third-party candidates declines in the final two weeks before the election, which could further tighten the race.

The remainder of the analysis focuses on likely voters and the expanded ballot (unless otherwise noted).

Part of Harris’ advantage comes from the small subset of independents who support her over Trump (44-35%) and some non-MAGA Republicans who are defecting to her (21% Harris, 67% Trump). Nearly 1 in 10 from each of these groups support Kennedy.

Overall, more Democrats support Harris (95%) than Republicans support Trump (90%).

There are also gender and education gaps. Women support Harris by 17 points, while men favor Trump by 16 points. White voters with a college degree support Harris by 5 points, while whites without a degree favor Trump by 13 points.

A tough spot for Harris is among black voters. Although an overwhelming majority supports her (81%), this remains 12 points behind the 93% who voted for Biden in 2020, according to the Michigan Fox News Voter Analysis. (FNVA).

Overall, Harris’ top groups are suburban women, urban voters and voters under 35.

Some of Trump’s best demographics are men, rural voters and whites without college degrees.

The economy has been the pinnacle of this cycle, and Trump has largely dominated on this front, both nationally and on the battlefields. But now Harris is almost on par with Trump when it comes to Michigan’s economy. By just 2 points, voters see Trump as better at handling the economy. Earlier this year, Trump was 11 points higher (among registered voters) than Biden in this area.

Trump also does better on the conflict in the Middle East (+6 points better handling) and does best on immigration (+16).

Harris is seen as better on dealing with abortion (+18 points) and election integrity (+10).

Among those who say Trump can handle immigration better, 12% support Harris in the vote, while 14% of those who say Harris can handle abortion better join Trump.

Voters give Harris the advantage that he has the right temperament (+10), helps the middle class (+10), protects American democracy (+6) and fights for people like you (+6).

The candidates are rated about equally when it comes to making necessary change (Harris +2), saying what they believe (Harris +1) and being a strong leader (Trump +3).

“Harris has erased Trump’s lead on the economy, undermining one of the main arguments for his candidacy,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who runs the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. “At the same time, Harris has built advantages in temperament and election integrity and may have positioned herself as the less risky choice for some voters.”

FOX NEWS POLL: TWO THIRD PARTIES FOR DEPORTING IMMIGRANTS WHO LIVE IN US ILLEGALLY

Since February, more than four in ten Michigan registered voters feel they are falling behind financially, including 45% today. Another 42% say they remain stable, while 14% say they are making progress.

Republicans, independents and rural voters are the ones most likely to feel like they are falling behind.

“Although the race is close, Michigan always seemed like the toughest of the Blue Wall states for Trump,” Shaw said. “The most important development here is that Harris has won women over in economics. We’ll see if Trump’s closing argument, in which he makes her plans to favor electric vehicles and regulate the auto industry, strong enough to take back the issue.”

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A few more things…

— Since July, Harris’ favorability rating among registered voters has risen 2 points, while Trump’s has fallen 3 points.

— More than a third of likely voters in Michigan (36%) say they voted, going for Harris by 39 points. Among those who have yet to vote and are confident they will (54%), Trump leads by 18 points.

— In the race for the U.S. Senate in Michigan, Democrat Elissa Slotkin has a four-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers among likely voters (51-47%). Among registered voters, this is 51-46% Slotkin – right where it was in July.

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This Fox News Poll, conducted October 24-28, 2024, co-directed by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), features interviews with a sample of 1,275 Michigan registered voters randomly selected from a voter file statewide. Respondents spoke to live interviewers on landlines (157) and mobile phones (770) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (348). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points and for the subsample of 988 likely voters it is ±3 percentage points. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure that respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past voting history, interest in the current election, age, education, race, ethnicity, church attendance and marital status.