Tropical Storm Rafael has strengthened in the Caribbean Sea and is poised to reach hurricane strength on Wednesday, bringing with it the risk of damaging winds and rainfall. But it should weaken as it approaches the U.S. Gulf Coast, where several states were not hit by a hurricane in November, according to data kept since the early months of the U.S. Civil War.

Parts of the Florida Keys could experience tropical storms starting Wednesday evening, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As Rafael approaches that area around high tide, Dry Tortugas could see a storm surge of 12 feet, a wall of water pushed inland by the storm’s winds. And the Lower Keys could see a storm surge of 12 feet, which are manageable levels. The National Hurricane Center said Wednesday that several tornadoes are possible over the Keys, as well as the southernmost mainland of Florida.

Rafael traveled northwest Tuesday morning, bringing heavy rain to Jamaica, Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore said Tuesday on X. “Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should have a nasty day and night, while western Cuba will get it tomorrow,” Cantore wrote . . “Depending on how quickly it can intensify, conditions will transition from (tropical storm) to hurricane over the Cayman Islands this evening.”

The National Hurricane Service (NHS) said Rafael could produce “damaging hurricane force winds, a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves” as it approaches the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening. The storm is expected to reach hurricane status near the Cayman Islands and strengthen further before making landfall in Cuba.

Rafael’s threat to Cuba comes just weeks after Hurricane Oscar brought heavy rains to the island, leading to a nationwide power outage and killing at least seven people. According to the Associated Press, Cuba is facing a lengthy recovery period, made all the more dangerous by the worsening economic crisis.

Meteorologists have also warned that higher areas of Cuba – as well as Jamaica – are at risk of flash floods and mudslides.

Forecasters believe Rafael could also bring heavy rain to other U.S. Gulf states, although dry air and lower water temperatures are expected to strip the storm of its hurricane intensity.

Some projections say coastal Louisiana, including New Orleans, and Mississippi could see impacts from the storm. Records dating back to 1861 indicate that neither Louisiana, Mississippi nor Texas saw a hurricane make landfall in November, according to New Orleans outlet WDSU.

The news outlet notes that a hurricane making landfall this time of year would generally be abnormal. Data shows that during that same period in November, only eight hurricanes made landfall on the Gulf Coast.

Hurricane Etna was the last storm to do this. The 2020 hurricane made landfall in Nicaragua, Cuba, Lower Matecumbe Key and Cedar Key, Florida, WDSU reported.

According to NBC News, Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Rafael will become the eleventh hurricane as it grows in strength; During the Atlantic hurricane season, there are typically fourteen named storms, with seven hurricanes, three of which are considered major.

Although the Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30, it is usually most active around September 10, according to NBC News. The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season had ten named storms from September 24 to November 4, which is the “most recorded for this period.”

Meteorologists had expected an unusually active hurricane season due to record high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean. Rising sea temperatures are widely attributed to global warming, which is mainly caused by humans’ burning of fossil fuels.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has caused widespread devastation across the US. Hurricane Milton, which made landfall in Florida on October 9, resulted in dozens of deaths and cost as much as $50 billion in damage.

Just two weeks earlier, rain from Hurricane Helene devastated entire towns in western North Carolina, killing hundreds of people. Before Hurricane Helene reached North Carolina, the deadly storm surge flooded much of Florida, destroying homes and businesses.

It also devastated several other southeastern US states.