Two teams teetering on the edge of their baseline expectations for the season meet in search of a morale-boosting win in the Champions League as Real Madrid host AC Milan at the Bernabeu on Tuesday.

Both teams have struggled at home and abroad so far this season with the question of where they think a club of their size should live. Real Madrid suffered a damaging El Clasico defeat to La Liga leaders Barcelona there last time out, but were given a chance to bounce back after their match last weekend was postponed due to flooding in Spain.

AC Milan, meanwhile, struggled to secure a 1-0 win over Monza in Serie A this weekend and are below the mark in the Champions League with just one win in their three games so far.

The Italian side are relying heavily on American star Christian Pulisic, who remains in good form and has scored in seven of the club’s 14 league and European games so far.

MORE: How to watch Real Madrid vs AC Milan in the Champions League | Expected lineups, team news

Real Madrid vs. AC Milan prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Real Madrid (-225)
• Score prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 AC Milan

AC Milan have decent value here given the huge gap in odds in this match that focuses on struggling Real Madrid, but it’s just hard to trust the sputtering Italian side here.

Carlo Ancelotti is still figuring out his best path forward to integrate Kylian Mbappé up front and get his shaky defense back on track, but there is no indication that AC Milan can achieve a big result on the road at the Bernabéu, even with Madrid in poor form. of their own.

In reality, there is little point in supporting Real Madrid at such a low value. There are better plays for this match, which we will discuss below.

Real Madrid vs. AC Milan match facts

• Date: Tuesday November 5, 2024
• Kick-off time: 9:00 PM local (3:00 PM ET / 12:00 PM PT)
• Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid, Spain)
• Referee: Slavko Vincic (SLV)
• Last meeting: AC Milan 2-2 Real Madrid (November 3, 2010 | Champions League)

MORE: A Complete Guide to Football Betting in the United States

Best bet between Real Madrid and AC Milan

• Choose: Christian Pulisic to score or assist a goal
• Chances: +220 (FanDuel)

No one on the Bernabeu pitch is currently in better form than Christian Pulisic, and yet the betting market has shown him absolutely no respect. This is of great value for a player who has scored or assisted a goal in almost three-quarters of his team’s games so far, with ten goals across thirteen games.

Pulisic has a significant history of playing against Real Madrid. He scored once and assisted twice in eight games against the Spanish giants, including goals in both legs of the 2021 semi-final to lift Chelsea to an eventual European title.

Real Madrid vs AC Milan prop bet

• Choose: AC Milan can take the lead at any time
• Chances: +165 (BetMGM)

• Choose: Any team that comes from behind and wins
• Chances: +475 (BetMGM)

Real Madrid will probably come away with a win in this match, but their hallmark this season has been chaos. Even with the win, things haven’t exactly been pretty for Los Blancos lately.

In each of their last three wins they have either come from behind (against Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League, 2-0 down at half-time), coughed up a lead (Celta Vigo grabbed an equalizer in the 51st minute before Vinicius Jr . won it for Madrid in the last half hour), or gave away an early chance to the opponent (Villarreal missed a chance in the 17th minute in Madrid’s 2-0 win).

Although Milan have struggled to create many chances, they have been clinical with the ones they have put together. They have a positive xGOT-xG difference in Serie A and have scored four goals on just 2.83 xG in their three Champions League games so far.