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Are users predicting a Trump or Harris victory?

Vaseline November 5, 2024

Kalshi, a prediction platform and the largest regulated US exchange, has been one of the faces of the election betting markets, which are now legal in the US.

The company describes itself on X as ‘the first legal way to bet on the elections in America’. Unlike traditional election polls, Kalshi bets are not tied to poll data or official voting results, but users can place bets on the outcome of the presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Harris or Trump? Which candidate do Kalshi bettors most prefer on election day?

According to Forbes, so far on Election Day, Kalshi users favor Trump by a margin of 56% to 44%. The platform’s odds largely lean in Trump’s favor across multiple betting markets. Trump’s lead over Harris was reflected in election odds data from betting sites such as Bet 365, Bovada, BetOnline and Oddschecker.

What is betting on election odds?

Platforms allow users to place bets on election results in the US – a now legal activity that was only approved weeks ago.

Previously, gamblers largely relied on offshore betting markets such as Sporting Index and Betfair Exchange. Each platform sets its own betting limits; Kalshi allows its users to bet as much as $100 million, NBC reports. But it is important to note that betting on election odds is based on betting behavior and is therefore different from opinion polls or voting results.