Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight suddenly named Vice President Kamala Harris the favorite to win the White House on Election Day for the first time since October 17.

The race has long been neck-and-neck, with both candidates’ leads in the polls held by razor-thin margins.

FiveThirtyEight had former President Donald Trump as the favorite to win for about two weeks, until Monday, when it found that out of 100 simulations, Trump won 53 times and Harris 47 times.

But in an Election Day update, Harris emerged as the favorite, winning 50 times out of 100, while Trump won 49 times out of 100.

The last time FiveThirtyEight had the vice president as the favorite to win based on this model, which uses polling, economic and demographic data, was on Oct. 17, when it found Harris winning 52 times out of 100, while Trump Won 48 times. of 100.

There is a less than one-in-100 chance that there will be no Electoral College winner, the poll aggregator said.

Likewise, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver, who is no longer associated with the site, technically named it after Harris. In his latest election prediction with FiveThirtyEight’s “direct descendant,” the Silver Bulletin, he picked Harris as the favorite to win by a razor-thin lead.

Out of 80,000 simulations, Harris won 50.015 percent of the time, while Trump won 49.65 percent of the time, according to Silver’s model. About 270 simulations resulted in a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College.

Silver warned in his Election Day newsletter: “When I say the odds in this year’s presidential race are as close to 50/50 as possible, I am not exaggerating.

“It’s not because it’s my default to hedge some extra uncertainty parameters into the model or just put some extra uncertainty parameters into the model for no reason. This is my fifth presidential election – and my ninth general election in total, the midterm elections included – and nothing like this has ever happened before.”

Newsweek has reached out to Harris and Trump’s teams via email outside normal business hours for comment.

The day before the election, Harris campaigned in Pennsylvania — its 19 electoral votes making it the biggest prize among the battleground states that will determine the winner of the Electoral College. Trump held rallies in North Carolina and Pennsylvania before ending his campaign Monday evening with a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Newsweek has gathered what the latest polls and predictions say about both candidates’ chances of winning the White House here.