In the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 10-point lead over former President Donald Trump in Virginia (51-41%). a new poll Released Friday by the Institute for Policy and Opion Research at Roanoke College. Independent Cornel West and Libertarian Chase Oliver both get 2% of the vote, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 1% of the vote.

In the race for the US Senate, Democratic Senator Tim Kaine leads his Republican challenger Hung Cao, a retired US Navy captain, 51-40%, the poll shows.

Friday’s survey marks a significant expansion of Harris’ advantage compared to a previous Roanoke College poll on August 20, when the Democratic candidate defeated her Republican opponent by just three points (47-44%) in a head-to-head matchup in Virginia. Kaine’s 11-point lead over Cao remains unchanged.

The new poll is not good news for the Trump campaign, which will stage a high-stakes rally Saturday at the Civic Center in Salem, where the Republican candidate plans to make his case to Virginians for the final time before Tuesday’s election.

In recent weeks, some leading Republicans have argued that, due to a fired-up base and a tightening of poll numbers, Virginia will be in trouble could be in play for Trumpwho lost in the Commonwealth in both 2016 and 2020.

But according to Friday’s survey, just 2% of likely voters say they are still undecided four days before the election, and another 2% say they will vote for someone other than the five candidates on the ballot. Just under half (47%) say they will almost certainly vote, while 40% indicate that they have already voted. Nearly a quarter (24%) still plan to vote before Election Day.

“Kamala Harris has widened the slim lead she had in the August Roanoke College Poll,” said Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College.

“She claims 95% of Democrats and leads 49%-36% among independents. Trump is supported by 90% of Republicans, but that may not be enough for him to win in Virginia.”

With so few undecided voters, it’s a “tough uphill climb for Trump,” Wilson said. “Democrats continue to benefit from early voting. Republicans are catching up, but they need a huge turnout on Election Day.”

The poll also found that a large majority (85%) of those who have not yet voted are very confident about their vote choice, and a further 9% are somewhat confident. Two-thirds (66%) say they are very enthusiastic about voting, and another 17% are somewhat enthusiastic.

The economy was mentioned as the most important topic by 43% of respondents. Abortion (20%) and immigration (12%) were more often cited as the most important than foreign affairs (8%) and crime (3%).

The survey also shows that voters are likely to trust Harris to do a better job on abortion (57%, compared to 36% for Trump), but the candidates are viewed about equally on other issues (equal to 48 % on immigration; Harris favored 49%-45% on both crime and foreign policy; and Trump does better on the economy (49%-46%).

When asked if the candidate understands and cares about people like her, only 37% think Trump understands and cares about them, compared to 46% for Harris. Respondents are sharply divided on the impact of the federal government: 44% think the government makes their lives worse and 40% think it makes their lives better.

The results of the Roanoke College survey correspond to a October 7 poll by the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University, with Harris leading Trump by 11 points (52-41%) among likely voters in Virginia. The survey found that 4% of voters remained undecided four weeks before the election, while 3% said they would vote for someone else.

For its research, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research interviewed 851 people who were probably registered voters in Virginia between October 25 and 29, 2024. The survey has a margin of error of 4.6%.