Topline

Votes cast on Election Day tend to favor Republicans, while Democrats have historically been favored in early voting, creating blue and red “mirages” depending on what type of votes each state counts first – a major factor in the 2020 race that could emerge again on Tuesday. , although it may be less prominent this time.

Key facts

In return for

This year’s blue and red mirages may be less prominent as fewer voters cast ballots compared to 2020 and more Republicans voted early. Several states have also updated their vote processing rules since pandemic-hit 2020, potentially leading to faster counts.

Which swing states could have red mirages (and blue shifts)?

Wisconsin: Local election officials are not allowed to begin processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, a policy that has caused some delays in past elections, especially in larger cities like Milwaukee. If smaller, redder rural counties count quickly, while deep blue Milwaukee takes some time to see results, we could see the first red mirage.

Michigan: Unlike in 2020, local officials now have more time to process mail-in ballots, potentially leading to fewer delays and a less severe mirage. However, the advocacy group Protect Democracy thinks a small red mirage is possible if smaller, redder counties report results before big blue counties like Wayne.

NevadaMost of the state’s population lives in Democratic-leaning Clark County, which could take longer to count mail-in ballots than in the rest of the state, leading to a potential red mirage and blue shift, Protect Democracy notes . The state is also allowing absentee ballots to arrive after Election Day as long as they are postmarked by Tuesday, meaning more mail-in votes could be added to the total each day.

Which swing states could have blue mirages (followed by red shifts)?

GeorgiaThe state weeks ago allowed counties to begin processing mail-in ballots, requiring them to report most mail-in and early votes an hour after polls close — potentially giving Democrats an early lead before the Republican-leaning elections on Election Day are being addressed. However, Georgia is counting quickly, so any blue mirage will be short-lived.

North Carolina: This state is also counting votes quickly and is expected to start reporting mail-in ballots, potentially causing a brief blue mirage.

Arizona: The state will begin reporting many of its earliest ballots before votes are counted on Election Day, creating a possible blue mirage. Officials then go back to verifying and counting “late earlylies,” or mail-in ballots that arrived on or just before Election Day, which can take days.

Will Pennsylvania have a blue or red mirage?

This must-win state could have an early blue mirage when a first round of mail-in ballots is reported, but a red mirage could appear the next time votes are counted on Election Day. Because county officials cannot begin processing mail-in ballots until the morning of Election Day, counting all the final ballots could take some time, meaning a blue shift could occur in the days after Tuesday. The state had a very pronounced blue shift in 2020, but the count is expected to move more quickly this year, Protect Democracy notes.

What we don’t know

How long it will take before elections are called. In an election this close, with polls showing Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris within two points of each other in all seven battleground states, the race might not happen on Election Day. Federal law requires states to complete recounts and resolve any disputes over the results by December 11. There are some reasons to believe results will be counted faster this year than in 2020, including record-breaking in-person early voting totals in several states. and fewer absentee ballots than in the previous election, which took place during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in more voters casting ballots by mail. Some states, such as Michigan, have also changed their laws since 2020 to allow absentee ballots to be counted before Election Day, while others have tightened restrictions, including North Carolina, which passed a new law last year requiring officials wait until 7:30 am. pm – after the polls close – to start tabulating the results, instead of doing so in real time.

Important background

Trump used the “red mirage” to claim voter fraud in the 2020 election, insisting that only votes counted on Election Day were valid. He prematurely claimed victory in 2020 at 2 a.m. on election night, when at least half a dozen battleground states still needed to be called, declaring “we want all the voting to stop. . . we don’t want them finding ballots at four in the morning and adding them to the list.” The election was called for Biden on November 7, after his victory in Pennsylvania put him above the 270 electoral votes needed to secure victory, but Georgia and North Carolina were not called until November 19 and November 13, respectively. In an effort to avoid a loss, Trump claimed without evidence during his 2020 campaign that mail-in ballots were susceptible to fraud, a narrative he largely dropped during his most recent campaign, encouraging his supporters to argue in any way to vote accordingly.

Tangent

Trump also claimed without evidence during the 2018 midterm elections that the shrinking lead for Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla. and Gov. Ron DeSantis — both of whom ultimately won their elections, but by smaller margins than the initial Election Day numbers — were the result of “Large numbers of new ballots” have “appeared out of nowhere,” he tweeted, adding: “Gotta get with election night!”

What to pay attention to

Trump has repeatedly suggested that he will not accept the results if he loses, insisting that Democrats cannot win unless they “cheat.” Trump is laying the groundwork to challenge the results by falsely claiming that Democrats are allowing undocumented immigrants to vote, and that his lawsuits, Harris’ replacement of Biden at the top of the ticket and the negative media coverage of his campaign are all amount to electoral fraud. On Tuesday, on his Truth Social account, he also promoted allegations that Lancaster County “received THOUSANDS of potentially FRAUDULENT voter registration forms and mail-in ballot applications from a third party. . . on top of Lancaster County being caught with 2,600 counterfeit ballots and forms, all written by the same person. Lancaster County officials said they examined about 2,500 applications from voter canvassers across the county, reporting that about 60% appeared to be fraudulent, with inaccurate addresses, false names and personal identification information, and addresses that did not match Social Security information. Officials said two other provinces were also investigating irregularities in the application.

Big number

More than 15.2 million. That’s the number of Democrats who voted early this year as of Nov. 4, compared to roughly 14.5 million Republicans, according to data from the Florida Election Lab for states that track party political preferences among early voters. The numbers show that a larger share of Republicans will vote early this year compared to 2020.

Read more

Trump-Harris early voting trends: GOP cuts to Democratic advantage (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris Polls 2024: Harris Leads in Latest Two Surveys – As Polls Tighten in the Week Before Election Day (Forbes)

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Leads in Nevada, Harris Up in Michigan, Arizona in Latest Surveys (Updated) (Forbes)