Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are fighting to win Michigan and secure the state’s 15 electoral votes.

Michigan played a decisive role in the presidential election for the fourth consecutive time, with Trump and Harris campaigning heavily to secure the state’s electoral votes. Both campaigns sought to appeal to people in vote-rich Detroit and its suburbs and Kent County to the west, home to Grand Rapids and a key swing area of ​​the state.

With 73 percent of the votes counted, Trump led Harris with 52.3 percent of the vote, according to CNN projections.

Who did Michigan voters choose in 2016 and 2020?

Michigan, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, was one of three presidential battlegrounds that narrowly went for Donald Trump in 2016, after nearly thirty years of supporting Democrats as president. Four years later, Democrat Joe Biden won all three states back for the Democrats, with a margin in Michigan of about 154,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million votes cast.

As of October 1, 2024, Michigan had approximately 8,148,345 registered voters, of which 2,522,847 (31%) were Democrats, 3,261,441 (40%) were Republicans, and a total of 198,538 (2.44%) had third-party affiliations. This is an increase from 2020, when Michigan had approximately 8,105,524 registered voters, of whom 7,151,051 were classified as active.

What were the polling averages in Michigan?

According to Nate Silver’s popular model, Kamala Harris had a lead in Michigan at the end of October 2024, with 48.4 percent of the expected vote compared to Donald Trump’s 47.2 percent, giving her a narrow lead of 0.4 points. This margin was smaller than earlier this month, with Trump improving his numbers by 0.9 points since September.

FiveThirtyEight’s model also showed Harris with a one-point lead over Trump, with Harris having 48 percent of the vote and Trump 47 percent.

The biggest problems in Michigan

In Michigan, a state rooted in industry, voters were primarily concerned about the economy, immigration and the conflict in Gaza. Despite favorable economic indicators such as low unemployment and falling inflation, the rising cost of living remained a pressing issue, with most polls identifying economic stability and job security as top priorities.

Reflecting national sentiment, immigration was another focus for Michigan voters, with debates over border security and pathways to citizenship taking center stage. The ongoing conflict in Gaza resonated strongly, especially among Michigan’s Arab-American community – the largest in the US – and foreign policy considerations weighed heavily.

A recent poll from The Washington Post found that the Gaza conflict was seen as a more important issue in Michigan than in other states, with Trump slightly ahead of Harris in the public’s perception of how to handle the situation.

As of November 1, 2024, a significant number of early votes had been cast in Michigan ahead of the November 5 election. Statewide, more than 2.5 million people participated in early voting, accounting for about 35.5% of the state’s 7.27 million registered voters.

This total included both absentee ballots and in-person early voting. Specifically, 1,843,060 absentee ballots were returned, representing approximately 78.5% of the 2,348,351 ballots mailed. Additionally, 736,894 voters cast ballots in person during early voting.

Both campaigns met intensively in Michigan

Both candidates had Michigan firmly in their sights, with Trump and Harris each making 14 stops in the state this year. Trump visited cities such as Detroit, Warren and Novi with his “America First” message, aiming to energize his base.

Harris focused on building Democratic support in areas like Grand Rapids and Lansing, with former First Lady Michelle Obama joining her in Kalamazoo for her first campaign appearance of the cycle in October.