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    • Who will lead the fight: Trump or Harris?
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    Who will lead the fight: Trump or Harris?

    Vaseline Posted on

    Topline

    The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is essentially in chaos from Election Day onwards, with pre-election surveys showing single-digit margins in all seven swing states – and crucial Pennsylvania is nearly tied .

    Key facts

    Nevada: This is also a toss-up: Trump is 0.3 points higher in the FiveThirtyEight average, but the Times/Siena poll shows Harris ahead 49%-46% and YouGov has Harris 48%-47% higher, while Emerson shows a tie at 48%. %.

    Georgia: It’s a razor-thin Trump advantage: He has a 0.7 point lead in the FiveThirtyEight average, and he leads 50%-49% in the Emerson polls, 50%-48% in the Morning Consult poll, and 48%-46% in YouGov’s according to the Times/Siena poll, but Harris is ahead 48%-47%.

    North Carolina: Another slight Trump advantage: He leads by 0.9 points in FiveThirtyEight’s data, and is ahead 49%-48% according to Emerson, 49%-47% according to Morning Consult, and 48%-47% according to YouGov, though Harris 48% leads -46% in the Times/Siena poll.

    Michigan: It’s a margin of error for Harris: She leads by one point in FiveThirtyEight’s data, 50%-48% in the Emerson polls, 49%-48% in the Morning Consult survey, and 47%-45% according to YouGov, but in the New York Times/Siena survey they amount to 47%.

    Wisconsin: Harris has a slight advantage: She is up 1.1 points per FiveThirtyEight, and she leads Trump 48%-45% per YouGov and 49%-47% per Times/Siena, but they are tied at 49 % in the Emerson polls, and Morning Consult has a roughly one-point lead over Trump.

    Arizona: It’s the biggest lead of any swing state and still extremely close: Trump is 2.2 points higher in the FiveThirtyEight average, and he leads 49%-45% by Times/Siena, 50%-48% by Emerson and 48 %-47% according to YouGov, although Morning Consult found a tie at 48%.

    When do the polls close in the swing states?

    The first swing state to end voting is Georgia at 7:00 PM EST, followed by North Carolina at 7:30 PM, and Pennsylvania and much of Michigan at 8:00 PM. Voting ends at 9:00 PM EST in Wisconsin, the rest of Michigan and Arizona, while Nevada closes out the swing states at 10:00 PM. However, counting the ballots and releasing the results may take a while. Georgia and North Carolina should start publishing the numbers soon, while Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania may take longer. Click here for an hour-by-hour introduction.

    Big number

    1.2 points. That’s Harris’ lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.

    Who is favored to win the elections?

    It’s essentially a toss-up. FiveThirtyEight gives Harris a 50% chance of winning and Trump a 49% chance, while statistician Nate Silver puts Harris’s chances at 50% and Trump’s at 49.6%. If the polling averages above are correct in all seven swing states, Harris will win a narrow election victory – but the polls could easily be off, and even a small error in either direction could lead to a Trump or Harris landslide.

    Is Iowa a swing state?

    Probably not, but a new poll Saturday has raised some eyebrows. Renowned pollster J. Ann Selzer found Harris leading Trump 47%-44%, a shocking result considering Selzer’s good reputation and Iowa’s status as a red state. Most other polls in Iowa show Trump with a significant lead. It’s not clear whether the poll’s findings — which suggested women, independents and older voters have turned sharply against Trump — will be replicated in other swing states, such as neighboring Wisconsin.

    Important background

    Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance, dramatically changing Democrats’ fortunes. Prior to the shift, polls consistently showed Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of seven (excluding North Carolina) in the 2020 election.

    Read more

    Trump vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Maintains Lead in 4 New Polls (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris polls in Michigan 2024: Harris narrowly leads in one of her key states (Forbes)

    Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Harris has less than 1 point lead in polling averages (Forbes)

    North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Nearly Tied in the New 7th Swing State (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Polls in Georgia 2024: Most Surveys Show Trump Ahead in Crucial Swing State (Forbes)

    Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Narrow Lead, But Struggles With Latino Voters (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris polls in Wisconsin 2024: Latest surveys show Trump with slight lead (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris polls in Arizona 2024: Trump has advantage in latest Swing State poll (Forbes)

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