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3 tips from the vote ahead of the elections
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3 tips from the vote ahead of the elections



CNN

Pre-election voting is winding down across the country, with many states wrapping up in-person early voting this weekend.

More than 78 million votes have already been cast in 47 states and the District of Columbia, according to data collected by CNN, Edison Research and Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofits, including insight in those who vote before November.

The data provides an idea of ​​who will choose to vote before Election Day, but does not predict election results. For example, we don’t know who people are voting for, and the data doesn’t include the millions of Americans who will go to the polls on Tuesday.

But with less than 24 hours before polls open across the country on Election Day, here are three key takeaways from what we know about those who decided to vote before November 5.

Across the country, far fewer voters chose to cast ballots before Election Day this year, compared to the pandemic-era 2020 election.

Four years ago, more than 110 million Americans voted early in person or by mail — about 70% of everyone who voted in that election.

We won’t know the final total number of voters in 2024 for weeks until all the results are fully counted, but the pre-election vote is expected to be closer to 50% of all votes – a division in the electorate more akin to the 2022 midterm elections.

While pre-election voting is down overall, more voters in some states chose to vote early in person than in 2020.

Key states North Carolina and Georgia both saw record numbers of voters participating in early in-person voting, with Georgia’s totals surpassing 2020 numbers. However, the pre-election total in North Carolina was still less than four. years ago because significantly fewer people chose to vote by mail.

Voting by mail has been an especially popular option during the pandemic as voters opted to avoid crowds at in-person polling places. However, in both states it is also more difficult to vote by mail now than it was four years ago.

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See what election workers in a critical swing state are doing before Election Day

Republicans have captured a larger share of pre-election voting than in 2020. The Trump campaign has stepped up efforts this year to encourage Republicans to vote early and by mail, a major shift from messaging to pre-election voting in 2020.

In the 27 states for which Catalist has comparable data, registered Democrats cast 37% of pre-election ballots, while registered Republicans cast 35%. That’s a significant narrowing of the partisan gap since 2020, when registered Democrats had a 12 percentage point lead at the same point and in the same states — 42% to 30%.

In four of the seven key states likely to decide the presidential election, voters are registering by party, and in each of those states, Republicans have captured a larger share of the pre-election vote than they did at the same time four years ago. . Democrats in these states have reduced their share overall compared to 2020.

In Arizona, 41% of voters were Republican before the election, a 4-point increase from 2020. Democrats have taken a share that is 3 points less than four years ago, at 33%.

Republicans in Nevada have increased their share from 2020 by just 1 point to 37%, while Democrats there have seen their share fall compared to four years ago, from 38% at this point in 2020 to 34% now.

In North Carolina, where Trump rallied with supporters on the final day of his campaign, Republicans accounted for 33% of the pre-election vote, up from 31% in 2020. Democrats accounted for 32%, down from 3 points compared to their share four years ago.

And in critical Pennsylvania, Republicans made up 33% of pre-election votes, up a whole 10 points from 2020, while Democrats made up 56% — down 10 points.

Despite Republicans making up a larger share of pre-election voters so far compared to four years ago, recent CNN polls show Vice President Kamala Harris leading overall among voters who have already cast ballots , including in all battleground states except Nevada. .

The gender gap remains large, but has narrowed slightly since 2020

In the seven most competitive states, the gender gap resembles that of the 2020 and 2022 snap elections.

Overall, about 1.8 million more women than men voted early in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to Catalist data. However, that gap is smaller than it was at the same point four years ago. That’s both because fewer people voted early overall, but also because the percentage difference is slightly smaller.

Georgia has the most pronounced gender gap, with women casting 56% of the first votes in the Peach State, while 44% were cast by men. In Arizona, 52% of early votes were cast by women, while 46% were cast by men. And in North Carolina, 56% of the votes were cast by women, compared to 44% by men.

Nevada had the largest gender gap, with 51% of early votes cast by women, compared to 47% by men.

In Pennsylvania, perhaps the state that could decide the race, women make up 56% of early voters. At the same time, in 2022 and 2020, women made up 57% of pre-election ballots cast.

This story has been updated with additional information.