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Shares of Tesla and US banks are rising and renewables are plummeting
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Shares of Tesla and US banks are rising and renewables are plummeting

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election reverberated across global stock markets on Wednesday, as investors rushed to back the winners and sell off the expected losers of his victory.

Winners

Tesla

Shares in Tesla, whose CEO Elon Musk became one of Trump’s most vocal backers, rose as much as 15 percent in pre-market trading.

Musk, who has contributed more than $100 million to the pro-Republican America Pac, has promised a role as head of a government efficiency department in a second Trump administration.

Speaking at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, Trump told his supporters that “a star is born.” . . Elon” and called the Tesla boss a “super genius”.

Shares of Trump’s Truth Social media company rose 36 percent.

Banks

U.S. bank stocks rose as investors expected interest rates to stay higher for longer under Trump and his administration to pursue a loose approach to regulation.

“This is a turning point, a real game changer,” said Mike Mayo, an analyst at Wells Fargo. “If I were to anticipate the mantra of the new administration, it would be ‘resilience with efficiency’, not just ‘resilience at any cost’.”

Banks’ profits were fattened after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat inflation, but that momentum has faded as the central bank has started cutting borrowing costs.

JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citigroup all rose more than 7 percent in pre-market trading. Shares of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley also advanced, helped in part by prospects that tax cuts would add momentum to a revival in dealmaking.

Line chart of revised stock price (%) showing US banks making a big leap forward after Trump's victory

Manish Kabra, head of US equity strategy at Société Générale, said the prospect of a “red sweep”, with Republicans taking control of the White House and the two houses of Congress, would also bring broader benefits to companies whose fortunes connected to the American economy.

“Buy the US cyclicality: that means regional banks, private equity, private credit, oil stocks and classic reshoring beneficiaries like industrial companies,” Kabra said.

Private assets

Blackstone Group, KKR and Apollo Global rose as investors expected them to emerge as winners from any improvement in dealmaking, sending shares in the companies up more than 5 percent.

A slowdown in mergers and acquisitions has hurt buyout industry profits, hitting lucrative performance fees and making it harder for companies to sell their portfolio companies.

Expectations that a Trump administration would implement a more lenient regulatory regime could also help the industry as it tries to sell its funds to individual investors.

Defense

A Trump presidency is expected to bring increased defense spending, especially among European countries that came under fire during his first term for failing to meet their NATO commitments.

Shares of Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman both rose 2 percent in the pre-market.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe aerospace and defense index rose 3 percent to a record high, with Trump’s return seen as a boon for the region’s defense industry given his call for NATO members to spend more than 2 percent of their GDP on defense.

“A more isolationist US” would almost certainly increase European defense spending and provide a boost to the continent’s defense groups, said Sam Burgess, an equity analyst at Citi.

Line chart of the Stoxx Europe aerospace and defense index, showing European defense stocks at an all-time high

BAE Systems, Britain’s largest defense company, rose 4.3 percent and Rolls-Royce gained more than 3.4 percent. In Frankfurt, Hensoldt’s shares rose by more than 3 percent, while in Milan, shares of Leonardo, one of Italy’s largest defense groups, rose by 3.5 percent.

Oil and gas companies

Trump courted oil companies during his campaign, vowing to rip up much of President Joe Biden’s environmental and climate agenda and imploring the industry to “drill, baby, drill.”

ExxonMobil, the largest oil giant, and rival Chevron both rose as much as 3 percent in pre-market trading, despite a stronger dollar hurting oil prices.

Losers

Renewable energy sources

In contrast, renewable energy companies in Europe declined on fears that Trump could eliminate the Biden administration’s tax breaks and subsidies.

Denmark’s Ørsted, the world’s largest developer of offshore wind farms, weakened as much as 14 percent, while Danish turbine manufacturer Vestas fell 10 percent.

The S&P Global Clean Energy index, which tracks the world’s largest clean energy companies, fell nearly 3 percent.

Industry executives had been bracing for a Trump victory, with Sean McGarvey, president of North America’s Building Trade Unions, telling a conference last week that a Trump victory would be “terrible” for the nascent US offshore wind industry.

Joe Biden’s administration has boosted offshore wind deployment, setting a goal of 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030. Trump has promised to halt the projects on “day one” of the new administration.

Tariff-exposed sectors

The prospect of Trump imposing new tariffs hit shares of European carmakers. Trump has said he will impose high tariffs on imports, with a plan to impose tariffs on goods from Europe of 20 percent for Europe and 60 percent for China.

Bar chart of the Stoxx Europe 600 index (%), showing industrial companies and banks rising on inflation expectations

The broad Stoxx 600 index for cars and parts fell 2 percent, with the threat of tariffs on imported cars, including from Mexico and the EU, weighing on German groups such as BMW and Volkswagen, which fell as much as 6 and 5. percent respectively.

The world’s largest shipping companies were also under pressure: the Danish AP Møller-Maersk lost almost 8 percent and the German Hapag-Lloyd fell by as much as 6 percent.

The sell-off was driven by fears that an outright trade war between the U.S. and China would reduce shipping demand, said Petter Haugen, an analyst at ABG Sundal Collier.

Additional reporting by Mari Novik, Sylvia Pfeifer and Rachel Millard in London and Antoine Gara in New York