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Five things financial observers should watch Tuesday night that aren’t about Trump versus Harris

Vaseline November 6, 2024

The coin odds ahead of today’s presidential election could mean the next Commander in Chief will be known for many hours (if not days) after the polls close tonight.

But that doesn’t mean we won’t deliver results tonight that financial observers will be watching closely.

A series of conflicts could be settled early that could set the course for economic policymaking in 2025, affecting everything from the leadership of key congressional committees to the influence certain industries, such as cryptocurrencies, will have in Washington, D.C.

Here are five topics to watch as we wait for the full results of the big fight between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump to be tabulated:

Read more: What the 2024 campaign means for your wallet: Yahoo Finance’s guide to the presidential election

Early in the night, once the first polling stations begin to close at 6 p.m. Dutch time, the exit polls will soon become public.

These are numbers of actual voters, as they vote with absentee and early voters, as shown by telephone polls or in-person polls at early voting locations.

The results are likely to provide new insights into American views on a wide range of issues, including the economy.

LITTLE CHUTE, WISCONSIN - NOVEMBER 01: A sign directs residents where they can vote for in-person absentee voting on November 1, 2024 in Little Chute, Wisconsin. Election day is Tuesday, November 5. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images) — A sign directs Wisconsin residents to in-person absentee voting on Nov. 1, 2024. (Scott Olson/Getty Images) · Scott Olson via Getty Images

Four years ago, exit polls asked about things like the state of the country’s economy, the financial situation of voters and whether citizens believe life will be better or worse for the next generation of Americans.

How voters answer this time — and how different it is from 2020 — could answer the question of whether America’s poor economic mood is starting to wane or will remain a dominant feature in the years to come.

There could also be some clues tonight about the enduring power of the crypto community in the nation’s capital.

Trump has made outsized promises to that community during his run, and a reported $160 million in spending by cryptocurrency companies has sent millions that could be decisive in lower-level races across the country.

This is a bold series of bets that, if successful, could form the basis for a new (and bipartisan) class of crypto-friendly lawmakers in the House of Representatives and the Senate.

It’s a dynamic that has already raised concerns in some corners. “We’ve never seen spending like this,” Democratic Rep. Summer Lee said in a recent webinar on industry influence, calling crypto the latest entrant in an “unbridled arms race.”

Either way, more than a dozen new pro-crypto congressmen and women could head to Washington next year if they win and that could help reframe an ongoing debate over whether (and how) Congress intervenes must come to regulate the industry.

A woman walks past signs advertising cryptocurrency banking at Union Station in Washington, DC, on March 16, 2023. (Photo by Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP) (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images) — In 2023, a sign advertising cryptocurrency banking can be seen at Union Station in Washington. (ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images) · ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS via Getty Images

These deep-pocketed groups have sent money to candidates from both parties, from Alaska to New York State, and appear likely to help usher in what is already being called the most crypto-friendly Congress ever in 2025.

And its influence could continue beyond Election Day, with Politico reporting this week that at least one cryptocurrency super PAC has $78 million in the bank as of Tuesday — apparently to keep lawmakers focused on their pet issues.

One Senate race in particular is likely to be closely watched by bank CEOs like Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase (JPM).

That is the battle in Ohio between Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and his challenger Bernie Moreno. It’s a contest that could determine both control of the Senate in 2025 and who heads the crucial Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.

That committee, which Brown currently heads, oversees the big banks and has been the scene of highly anticipated hearings in recent years, with CEOs forced to answer questions from lawmakers on a range of topics.

TOPSHOT - (L-R) Wells Fargo CEO and President Charles Scharf, Brian Bank of America Chairman and CEO Thomas Moynihan, JPMorgan Chase Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser, State Street CEO Ronald O'Hanley, BNY Mellon CEO Robin Vince, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman are sworn in before testifying during a Wall Street oversight hearing by the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, December 6, 2023. Big US Banks railed against new proposed capital requirements at a congressional hearing on Wednesday, joining Senate Republicans in dismissing the measures as shrinking lending to ordinary Americans. (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images) — CEOs of major banks are sworn in before testifying at an oversight hearing by the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs in 2023. (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images) · SAUL LOEB via Getty Images

Whoever takes center stage against these CEOs in 2025, whether it’s Brown or a friendlier figure like current member Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, will be closely watched.

Some voters will also have a chance to express their opinions on cannabis on Tuesday.

Voters in Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Florida have marijuana measures on the ballot. And voters in Massachusetts may decide to go further and possibly legalize psychedelics.

For example, the Florida bill would legalize recreational marijuana use for all adults in the state. It is already legal in Florida for medical reasons and is already known as the most lucrative medical cannabis market in the US.

The results in Florida and elsewhere would further add to a patchwork of marijuana laws across the country and could also determine whether the long-awaited changes nationally are closer to reality.

Efforts to legalize cannabis banking have long been stalled in Washington DC, while the SAFE Banking Act has been stalled in Congress for years. But increasing acceptance at the state level of “legitimate” cannabis-related businesses could further open the door for these efforts.

A Trulieve employee listens during a discussion about the medical marijuana company's product and packaging safety standards at an event in support of Amendment 3, a ballot initiative that would legalize the recreational use of pot in Florida for adults 21 and older. Trulieve medical cannabis dispensary in Hallendale Beach, Florida. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell) — An advocate listens during a discussion about medical marijuana at an event in Hallendale Beach, Florida, in support of Amendment 3, a ballot initiative that would legalize the recreational use of marijuana in Florida for adults 21 and older. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

The battle for control of Congress could last as long overall as the presidency — and could be just as important on certain issues.

Two of the most important debates in Washington in 2025 will be about taxes and green energy. In either case, a President Trump or Harris could see nearly all of their promises on these fronts flounder as they negotiate with a House or Senate controlled by the opposition party.

“The composition of Congress is critical,” said Charles Myers, chairman and founder of Signum Global Advisors, in a recent interview on tax issues.

He said a divided Washington is the most likely outcome and will quickly lead to a massive lowering of expectations regardless of who wins.

WASHINGTON, DC OCTOBER 26: The rising sun stands atop the Statue of Liberty at the top of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC, early in the morning on October 26, 2024. (Photo by J. David Aké/Getty Images) — The rising sun atop the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC early in the morning on October 26, 2024 (J. David Ake/Getty Images) · J. David Ake via Getty Images

A split decision seems very possible indeed. According to a consensus forecast from 270toWin, Republicans are able to win at least 51 seats and thus retain control.

In the House of Representatives, the division is even, with 21 seats up for election that will likely decide who will wield the gavel next year.

Ben Werschkul is Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.

Every Friday is Yahoo Finance’s Rachelle Akuffo, Rik NieuwmanAnd Ben Werschkul provide you with a unique look at how US policy and government impact your business results on Capitol Gains. Watch or listen to Capitol Gains Apple podcasts, Spotifyor wherever you find your favorite podcasts.

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