UPDATE (November 6, 2024, 6:00 AM ET): This piece has been updated to reflect NBC News’ projection Donald Trump has defeated Kamala Harris to win back the White House.

What’s the best advice Donald Trump’s criminal lawyers can give him right now?

Win the elections.

The Electoral College results could determine whether the Republican presidential nominee will have to fight in the White House or in courtrooms to avoid prison sentences in the coming years. If Trump wins, his criminal cases would almost certainly be cut in half.

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Here’s where his four prosecutions stand, starting with the federal cases actually up for a vote.

Classified documents and obstruction case

In July, U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the case accusing the former president of unlawfully withholding national defense information after leaving office and obstructing the investigation into his actions. The judge appointed by Trump reasoned that special counsel Jack Smith was improperly appointed, and Smith is appealing the dismissal of the case. Those who lose at the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals can appeal to the Supreme Court.

But the case could be settled in February if Trump, who has pleaded not guilty in all his criminal cases, takes office in January. The Republican presidential hopeful said he would fire Smith in “two seconds” if he wins. The former president, who showed clemency to several accomplices while in office, could also seek a legally untested self-pardon. And the Justice Department has a policy against indicting and prosecuting sitting presidents, which could also play a role.

Even if Trump loses the election and Cannon’s firing is overturned on appeal, the fate of the case is shaky as long as she is in charge. While there is a good chance that the appeals court will reverse the dismissal and the Supreme Court will uphold the reversal, it is less likely (but still possible) that the appeals court will appoint a new judge to handle it. That’s despite the Florida judge’s Trump-friendly actions thus far and the possibility that a President Trump could try to promote her to higher office.

Case of federal election interference

Trump’s other federal case is being heard by a judge who may be Cannon’s opposite: Obama appointee Tanya Chutkan. The biggest wrinkle in this — if Trump loses and can’t overturn it — is the July Supreme Court ruling that granted the former president broad criminal immunity. That not only narrows the case accusing Trump of illegally attempting to undermine the 2020 election he lost to Joe Biden, but also leaves unclear how much of Smith’s case could go to trial.

That’s because the Republican-appointed majority of the Supreme Court established a vague test that eliminated some aspects of Smith’s case but left it up to Chutkan to decide how much of the rest of the case survives. Whatever the District of Columbia judge decides, the case may ultimately be appealed to the judges before a trial takes place. So while Cannon is the dark factor in the documents case, the Roberts Court is hovering over it.

In that regard, another case the judge ruled last term limiting obstruction charges for defendants could also help Trump, who is accused of obstruction in two of the four counts in his D.C. indictment.

Case of election interference in Georgia

The Supreme Court’s immunity ruling could also narrow the case for Trump’s interference in state elections — but we’re not even there yet. He is being held in a preliminary investigation in the defense’s attempt to disqualify Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. If Willis and her agency are kicked off the case, it is an open question when or even if the case will be assigned to a new agency or prosecutor.

And even if Willis wins the appeal and Trump wins the election, don’t expect a sitting president to stand trial in court. There has not yet been a trial on the matter, but Trump’s Georgia attorney, Steve Sadow, has indicated he is willing to argue the case on constitutional grounds.

Even if Trump loses and Willis stays on the case, don’t expect a Georgia trial against Trump to happen anytime soon. In addition to immunity and other issues that still need to be resolved, there are several co-defendants still facing racketeering charges, which itself poses complications.

Adding another wrinkle, one of those co-defendants, former Trump White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, has a petition pending in the Supreme Court seeking to have his charges moved to federal court. That issue extends beyond Meadows, as other co-defendants are seeking the same damages, including Trump-era environmental attorney Jeffrey Clark. (Meadows and Clark have pleaded not guilty.)

Meadows’ petition will be heard during the justices’ private conference on Friday, so we can quickly learn whether the court will take it up. Four judges are needed to grant a review.

New York hush money case

Finally, there is Manhattan. In May, Trump was convicted of falsifying business records for covering up the reimbursement of hush money paid to Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 presidential election. The adult film star claimed she had sex with Trump years earlier, which he denied.

Sentencing in this state case has been postponed, most recently until November 26. But first, Judge Juan Merchan will decide on November 12 whether the guilty verdicts can stand in light of the Supreme Court’s immunity decision. Although Trump has not been convicted in New York of any official acts as president, his lawyers argue that the evidence used by prosecutors to convict him still conflicts with that ruling.

Trump’s lawyers have also indicated they would immediately appeal an adverse immunity decision, possibly all the way to the Supreme Court. So regardless of whether Trump wins the election, his sentencing in New York could be further delayed because of that potential appeal. In any case, incarceration is not mandatory in this case, because under the law these are the lowest charges among Trump’s four prosecutions.

But the fact remains that his best defense in all his cases is an election victory.

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