The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. And many economists are still projecting another cut in December is likely on the table as well.

But Donald Trump’s election win is shifting how economists are viewing the path forward for the Fed come 2025. As Yahoo Finance’s Ben Werschkul has reported: Trump’s main campaign promises — a new wave of tariffs and a “mass deportation” of undocumented immigrants — could put new upward pressure on prices, many economists say.

That sentiment played out in markets and Wall Street’s Fed forecasts on Wednesday. The 10-year treasury yield (^TNX) spiked as much as 17 basis points to hit 4.46%. The move extended a recent surge in treasuries as economic growth data has largely come in better-than-expected since the Fed slashed rates by half a percentage point on Sep. 18.

Markets have now moved from seeing nearly eight cuts when the Fed first cut rates back in September, to now pricing in about four cuts through the end of next year.

Wells Fargo chief economist Jay Bryson had projected seven interest rate cuts from the Fed over the next year. But Bryson wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday that there are now clear risks to their forecast and the Fed cuts less than initially thought.

“The FOMC may not want to ease policy by that much if new tax cuts and tariffs cause inflation to shoot higher over the next couple of years,” Bryson wrote. Thus, we think the risks to our fed funds rate forecast are skewed to the upside (i.e., less easing next year than we currently project).

Given Wednesday’s Fed decision feels widely anticipated any commentary on how Trump policies could impact the Fed’s path forward will be sure to grab investor attention during Fed chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Vice President Kamala Harris called former President Donald Trump to concede the presidential race, a senior campaign aide said.

Jen O’Malley Dillon, Harris’s campaign manager, said Harris told Trump she would work with President Joe Biden to ensure a peaceful transfer of power. Harris also told Trump that she “hopes he will be a president for all Americans.”

Harris will address the nation later today in a speech at Howard University as the Democratic Party reels from its second stunning defeat to the billionaire.

Trump has swung four states he lost in 2020 in his path back to the White House: Georgia and the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

The Yahoo News live blog has more coverage and up-to-the-date info.

S&P 500 (^GSPC) climbed above 5,900 for the first time ever on Wednesday as investors went risk-on following Donald Trump’s White House victory.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), up more than 3%, also touched a fresh intraday record while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained more than 2.5% to hover at new highs.

Financials (XLF) led the market gains with JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) hitting new records.

On the tech side, chip heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA) also soared more than 4% to touch new highs.

Nvidia stock (NVDA) touched a record on Wednesday, up 4% as the major averages soared following Donald Trump’s presidential victory.

Shares of the artificial intelligence chip heavyweight also helped send the S&P 500 (^GSPC) to an intraday record.

Nvidia recently surpassed Apple (AAPL) as the biggest company in the world by market capitalization.

The markets soared on Wednesday after Trump won the presidential election against Vice President Kamala Harris.

Tesla (TSLA) shares soared 14% in afternoon trading as Wall Street analysts weighed in on how the electric vehicle giant could benefit from Donald Trump’s presidential victory.

“TSLA and CEO Elon Musk are perhaps the biggest winners from the election result, and we believe Trump’s victory will help expedite regulatory approval of the company’s autonomous driving technology,” wrote Garrett Nelson, vice president and senior equity analyst at CFRA Research.

The analyst upgraded Tesla to Buy from Hold, lifting his 12-month price target on the stock from $110 to $375 per share.

Musk was pivotal in helping elect Trump, spending more than $130 million on Trump and down-ballot Republicans.

Donald Trump’s election win shaped the stock market action early Wednesday, with a broad “Trump trade” pushing stocks, crypto, and other themes higher in a broad rally.

“The market initially is focused on all the potential positives of a Trump candidacy as far as lower regulations, lower taxes,” Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner told Yahoo Finance.

Investor support for the financial sector was a standout on Wednesday.

The SPDR Financials Sector ETF (XLF), which is comprised of some of the largest banks in the country, rose more than 4% for its best day in two years. Big banks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), and Morgan Stanley (MS) were all up between 7% and 11%.

Meanwhile, companies with pending acquisitions caught bids, as seen by the more than 17% rise in Discover Financials (DFS) stock, which is currently in agreement to be acquired by Capital One (COF).

Read more on other Trump trades taking place today here.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock tanked as much as 27% Wednesday before paring losses.

Shares of the AI server maker, which is a customer of Nvidia (NVDA), tumbled 24% to trade above $20 midday.

The drop extends Tuesday’s losses after Super Micro earnings missed estimates. The company also said it couldn’t predict when it would file its delayed 10-K report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The stock, which thrived earlier this year thanks to the artificial intelligence boom, has been under pressure since a report from short-selling firm Hindenburg Research in August revealed alleged accounting violations at the company. Shares tanked further when the Wall Street Journal reported in September that the company was being investigated by the Department of Justice. They plunged again on Oct. 30 when Super Micro’s accounting firm Ernst & Young, which was conducting its audit, resigned. Super Micro is now at risk of being delisted from the Nasdaq (^IXIC).

Major US-listed Chinese stocks sank after a decisive US election win for Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump, who has promised to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.

Shares of US-listed Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba (BABA) fell as much as 4.5% while JD.com (JD) dropped as much as 7.7%, Bilibili (BILI) stock fell up to 7.8%, Baidu (BIDU) sank as much as 2.9%, and PDD Holdings (PDD) tumbled up to 5.1%. The stocks pared losses as the morning continued.

Trump’s trade plan would implement tariffs at levels unseen since the Great Depression, which would raise basic costs for US households and hit GDP growth.

Read the full story here.

President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to bring mortgage rates down. It may not necessarily work out that way.

“Trump’s fiscal policies can be expected to lead to rising and more unpredictable mortgage rates through the end of this year and into 2025,” Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant wrote in an email Wednesday. “Signals of higher mortgage rates are already out there in the form of rising yields on the 10-year Treasury this morning.”

The yield on the 10-year Treasury spiked early Wednesday to 4.45%. Mortgage rates usually move in conjunction with the 10-year yield as lenders determine their daily rates with movements in the bond market.

Sturtevant added, “Bond yields are rising because investors expect Trump’s proposed fiscal policies to widen the federal deficit and reverse progress on inflation.”

According to a Wall Street Journal survey conducted in early October, most economists predicted inflation, interest rates and deficits would be higher in a Trump administration versus a Kamala Harris administration.

Trump’s victory comes as the housing market has remained out of reach for many Americans over the past few years, driven by record-high home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and an undersupply of homes.

Oil slid as much as 2% on Wednesday before flipping into green territory as the US dollar rose and traders weighed what Donald Trump’s presidential victory means for demand and supply going forward.

West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures hovered around $72 per barrel while Brent (BZ=F), the international benchmark, traded just above $75 per barrel.

Earlier in the session, the US Dollar Index saw its biggest jump since 2016. Analysts highlighted Trump’s promise to end the Ukraine-Russia war and his counsel to Israel to wind down the Gaza conflict quickly.

“Crude futures being pressured by the ‘Trump Trade’ this morning as a sharply higher US Dollar Index and the prospects of deescalation in both the Middle East and Ukraine is taking the Geopolitical fear factor out of crude,” Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial, wrote on Wednesday morning.

The possibility of more tariffs also weighed on prices earlier in the session.

“Tariffs may ultimately impact trade between the USA and China, negatively affecting the Chinese economy and the growth in oil demand,” Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday.

In early trading action, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) jumped about 2.8%, or more than 1,200 points, to lead the gains. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) moved up roughly 1.9%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose about 1.8%.

Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 (^RUT), which includes some regional banks, soared more than 4.2% at the open. The small-cap index was partially driven by a rally in banks. Trump’s policy proposals have been viewed by some experts as more positive for the financials sector, spurring a massive rally in regional banks before the open on Wednesday. The S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) was up more than 10%.

Amid a broad market rally Wednesday morning, bank stocks were among the best performers. Investors see Donald Trump’s win in the presidential race as ushering in a “new era” for regulating the nation’s biggest financial institutions.

Yahoo Finance’s David Hollerith notes: “Big banks including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), and Morgan Stanley (MS) are all up between 7% and 11% in premarket trading Wednesday morning.”

Bank stocks have been strong performers for much of this year, with most of the large money center banks seeing their shares outperform the S&P 500 (^GSPC) in 2024.

As David reports, Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo said in a note early Wednesday that Trump’s win “should aid all banks.” Mayo added that the win ushers in a “new era after 15 years of harsher regulation” following the financial crisis.

Read more from David on what could be one of the most impactful Trump trades for investors and consumers alike during the next administration.

Here’s a look at the big economic and market themes happening today as Wall Street digests Donald Trump’s rise back to the White House.

Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications, (the week ended Nov. 1); S&P Global US services PMI, (October final); S&P Global US composite PMI, (October final)

Earnings: Arm Holdings (ARM), AMC (AMC), Aurora Cannabis (ACB), Celsius Holdings (CELH), CVS (CVS), Elf (ELF), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Qualcomm (QCOM), Toyota (TM)

Here are some of the biggest stories you may have missed overnight and early this morning:

As Trump wins, here’s what’s next on 2 key economic issues

Bitcoin hits record as pro-crypto Trump wins presidency again

Tesla shares pop

DJT stock rockets higher

Oil tumbles as Trump trades boost the dollar

Gold falls amid Trump’s decisive win

Dollar hits 1-year high

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged to a fresh record high overnight as Donald Trump, the candidate viewed as the most pro-cryptocurrency, emerged as the president-elect.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency surged above $74,000 per coin for the first time ever late Tuesday night. But it’s not just actual crypto coins moving higher.

MicroStrategy (MSTR), which holds a significant amount of bitcoin on its balance sheet, rose more than 11% in premarket trade. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) also gained more than 12%, while Robinhood (HOOD), which offers cryptocurrency trading on its platform, popped almost 10%.

Tesla (TSLA) stock rose more than 12% in premarket trading on Wednesday morning as investors digested Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk had been a heavy supporter of Trump’s campaign. Trump referenced Musk during his speech early Wednesday morning, calling him a “super genius.”

“We have to protect our geniuses,” Trump said. “We don’t have that many of them.”

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives pointed out that Trump could roll back the current electric vehicle tax incentives in place and be “an overall negative for the EV industry.” But given Tesla’s potential competitive advantage in the EV space, this could be a “huge positive” for Tesla.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched in the EV industry, and this dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players (BYD, Nio, etc.) from flooding the US market over the coming years,” Ives wrote in a Wednesday morning note.

Nio’s (NIO) stock fell 6% before the bell, while BYD (BYDDY) shares fell 3.8% in Hong Kong.

Ives added that a Trump win could also fast-track Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) initiatives.

“We believe a Trump win could add $40-$50 per share to Tesla’s stock and exceed $1 trillion in market cap if autonomous/FSD is accelerated starting in 2025 and a tailwind for Cybercab,” Ives wrote.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is getting a boost from Trump’s win as investors prepare for a possibly more digital asset-friendly government, notably at the SEC.

“With Trump leading the US Presidential race and GOP likely to flip the Senate, we believe, the regulatory headwind for crypto has turned into a tailwind and the market is nowhere close to factoring in this shift,” Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note.

“We think the market’s first reaction could be to ‘sell the news’, but we suggest investors in stocks with exposure to Bitcoin use the marginal dip here as an enhanced buying opportunity to capture the upside over next 12 months — $200K Bitcoin remains our high-conviction 2025 year-end call.”

Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong weighed in on X, formerly Twitter:

American voters gave Donald Trump a commanding victory, powered in large part by an intense voter focus on inflation that has been evident for years.

But Trump’s key campaign promise of new tariffs and a “mass deportation” of undocumented immigrants could put new upward pressure on prices, the very issue that appears to have powered him to a win.

A note from Capital Economics late Tuesday night crystallized some of the macroeconomic worries. The authors wrote that they expected Trump to push forward on his proposed immigration curbs and tariffs. They said that as a result, “We are minded to reduce our GDP growth forecast … by roughly 1% and add 1% to our inflation forecast over the same period.”

Read here for more about what Trump could mean on the key economic issue of price pressures, as well as taxes.

US stock futures surged as investors digested Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election over Kamala Harris.

A recent call in the state of Wisconsin in favor of Trump by the Associated Press on Wednesday morning confirmed the victory.

After a steady rally in stock futures overnight as Harris’s path to victory narrowed, futures tied to the three major averages built on earlier jumps on the news.

As of 6:00 a.m. ET, contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) and S&P 500 futures (ES=F) each soared around 1.6% and 2.3%, respectively. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were up around 2.9% on the heels of a winning day for stocks.

Meanwhile, futures tied to the small-cap Russell 2000 index (RTY=F) were up more than 6.5%.

The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) is pushing higher as investors bet on a faster pace of inflation under new Trump tariffs and a slower pace of interest rate cuts from the Fed.

“Overall though we think that a Trump win means higher inflation in the near-term versus the status quo with Harris, but slower growth (potentially shaving up to 0.5 percentage points off of GDP in 2025 and 2026),” TD’s head of global strategy Rich Kelley wrote. “For FOMC policy, we think the Fed will continue to ease this year, but likely take a pause in the first half of 2025 as it waits to get a better sense of the impact of the new administration’s policies on inflation and growth.”

The 10-year yield was up 14 basis points to around 4.26% early on Wednesday.

For now, markets are taking this move in yields in stride. But keep in mind that this is a market that loves prospects of more rate cuts. If that thesis gets pushed aside under Trump as tariffs spur new inflation, markets could recalibrate to the downside.