I can’t really remember the last time a multi-day, multi-wave, highly complex system not only overperformed its original offering, but then went on to over-perform for the last half of the event. It looks like this system will try to take care of just that, at least for Denver and points south and southeast.

Further north – we hear you – frustrating to be left out of the action, but it looks like you have some hope of getting in on the action with this latest push, we’ll see.

How much snow so far?
By early this morning Denver has a record 6.2 inches of snow officially (at DIA), and for many of us even more so, especially in the western and southern part of the city. What a flip of October!

The three-day snowfall totals show who saw how much, with much of the state picking up measurable snowfall in recent days, and more to come!

The setup
Despite the snow we see today, the main feature (low) is still present Good to our southwest. After the initial energy subsided Tuesday night, not much progress has been made – and there won’t be until we turn Friday evening and Friday evening into Saturday.

You can see the low (red L) over Arizona in the current water vapor this morning. It will gradually creep east and then turn northeast overnight, eventually tracking along the Colorado-Kansas border Friday evening through Saturday.

You can see that in the animation below, which shows the positioning of the circles/blue as they move from our south to the east, eventually expelling to the northeast.

This is a beautiful setup for lots of snow in eastern Colorado.

While the energy power If the preference is for areas further south and east (vs. Loveland, Fort Collins), I’d say today’s trend would mean more of those southern cities get measurable snow before things are said and done on Saturday .

Looking at the forecast QPF (precipitation) between now and Saturday evening, we see a huge amount of water forecast for Southeastern Colorado. More than 2 inches for a good chunk of this area on this particular model. Note: the lower totals are heading toward Denver and pointing north… but not dry!

Snowfall forecast
As mentioned above, a Winter storm warning goes into effect tomorrow morning for the Denver metro area and runs through Saturday morning:

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5AM FRIDAY TO 12PM MST SATURDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy snow is expected. Total snow accumulations between 7 and 14 inches, with heaviest amounts south of I-70. Lighter totals of only 1 to 4 inches north of Boulder.

* WHERE…The Southern Front Range Foothills, Boulder and the western suburbs of Denver and Denver.

* WHEN…Friday 5am to Saturday 12pm MST.

* IMPACT…Traveling can be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact Friday morning and evening commutes.

For the totals, we’re thinking like this, with room for adjustment going into Friday.

• Fort Collins: 3-8″
• Boulder: 6-12″
• Denver (downtown): 6-12″
• Southeast Denver: 7 – 14″+
• Conifer: 6-12″
• Castle Rock: 6 – 12″+
• Elizabeth: 10-16″
• Colorado Springs: 6 – 12″
• Limon: 10-16″

Modeled predictions:
The European ensemble average is probably a good starting point, but is at the high end of what we think is potential in Denver. Still, it’s generally hard to argue much about this, and it shows that some of our northern communities can look a few inches before things are over:

The HRRR (below) is currently closest to our forecast. Note the heaviest totals in the south and east Denver metro, with lesser increases in the north and west:

And the 3 km long NAM that shows high-end potential over the entire area would undoubtedly be one tree scenario!

Greatest boom and bust potential
Any track and to a lesser extent temperatures will influence the final snowfall totals. A slightly further east track would limit snow to Denver and point northwest, while a more west track would bring total snowfall to these areas. Also worth mentioning, some The guidelines show that snow sometimes mixes with rain at lower elevations, which would obviously hurt snowfall forecasts!

For the biggest tree we think Denver’s southern and eastern suburbs could end up under an impressive band when things really get going later Friday, which could again overwhelm these areas. Think about this about Southeast Aurora.

For the biggest bust potentially, probably Denver and pointing north, where temperatures and/or track could rob us of upslopes and high snow totals.

All this to say: highest confidence across the Plains where BIG totals are expected, with Denver right on the edge – a foot of snow almost as likely as 4″. Yep!

Planning and impact
This was an impactful event and will continue to be so until the end of the week and the beginning of the weekend. Winds will also increase significantly in some areas during the day from Friday through early Saturday. The areas at greatest risk for snowstorms are in the following areas: Elbert County, eastern/northeast El Paso County, Lincoln County, Kit Carson County, Cheyenne County and most of the southeastern corner of Colorado where snow has fallen or will fall. . These areas are likely to experience wind gusts of 30 to 45 km/h. There will be significant drifting and drifting snow, creating a dangerous scenario, especially Friday night. Below is where the biggest impacts are expected during the remainder of the storm, which are subject to change as we head into Friday, stay tuned.

As for timing, expect snow showers to taper off today, with low snow chances through most of the night.

Snow chances increase from south to north on Friday, with Denver’s best window for snow accumulation being between 6 a.m. Friday and 9 a.m. Saturday.

Temperatures will gradually moderate as the storm dissipates Saturday, but it will remain cold.

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