Topline

Former President Donald Trump’s expected victory could have implications for Social Security and Medicare. Although the ex-president has publicly pledged not to cut benefit programs, experts have warned that his policy proposals — including a tax cut on Social Security benefits — could prevent the programs from being implemented. out of cash, with an analysis projecting that Trump’s policy agenda would deplete Social Security funds sooner than expected, in just six years.

Key facts

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Chief critic

“The so-called experts at CRFB have been consistently wrong over the years,” Leavitt said in a statement to Forbes after the group’s analysis was released, claiming that Trump “strongly reformed Social Security in his second term.” will continue to protect.”

Surprising fact

In addition to the faster depletion of America’s Social Security and Medicare funds, tax experts predict that Trump’s proposed Social Security tax cut would not provide as much benefit to America’s middle class. Social Security recipients who earn between $32,000 and $60,000 annually would save only about $90 in taxes, according to the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution’s Tax Policy Center, while the 1% of earners who earn $5 million or more would receive $2,500. The lowest-income Americans who earn less than $32,000 are already not taxed on their Social Security benefits, so they would see no change.

How does immigration affect social security?

Leavitt claimed to Forbes that Vice President Kamala Harris’ policy proposals threatened Social Security because if undocumented immigrants are “allowed to stay,” it will “cause Social Security to buckle and collapse.” However, CFRB and other experts say the opposite is true, and that it is Trump’s plan for mass deportations that would actually harm the entitlement program. Undocumented immigrants who work in paid jobs in the U.S. pay into Social Security even though they will not actually receive any money from it, ultimately strengthening the program’s coffers more than U.S. citizens taking Social Security money. If those migrants are all deported, as Trump has proposed, it means that Social Security would lose all the money they now contribute, worsening financial problems. The Social Security Administration’s Office of the Chief Actuary estimated in 2013 that undocumented immigrants contributed about $12 billion to Social Security in 2010, and the CFRB’s projection estimates that Trump’s deportation and tariff plans together will cost Social Security somewhere between the $300 billion and $750 billion would cost between fiscal years. 2026 and 2035.

What about project 2025?

Harris and other Democrats have pointed to Project 2025 to suggest that Trump would cut Social Security and Medicare if elected. The document, a 900-page policy agenda led by the Heritage Foundation and other right-wing groups, proposes a total overhaul of the executive branch by the next Conservative government. “Just look at his Project 2025 agenda,” Harris said in a speech also shared online by her campaign. “If elected, Donald Trump … plans to cut Social Security and Medicare.” Project 2025 does not explicitly call for full cuts to Social Security or Medicare, although it does propose reforms to Medicare, including making Medicare Advantage, a paid supplement to Medicare, the “default enrollment option.” Trump and his campaign have publicly disavowed any connection to Project 2025 — though he has ties to the Heritage Foundation and has praised its work in the past — and he would not be obligated to follow its policy agenda if elected.

Tangent

Trump’s vice president, Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, told The New York Times before he was named as Trump’s running mate that he supports raising money for Social Security through a combination of putting more men back to work, the raise wages and raise rates. . As a result, he claimed, “I think you’re buying yourself a whole lot more than the nine or 10 years that the actuaries say we have.” It is unclear whether Trump shares these views on how to close a potential Social Security funding gap, although the ex-president has proposed raising tariffs on imported goods. Tax experts have suggested that raising rates would not raise much government revenue, however, and that the amount raised would likely be lower than expected because at least some Americans would stop buying imported goods because they would be more expensive.

Important background

The economy became a central issue in the November election as polls repeatedly showed it to be the most important issue for voters, including Social Security. Trump highlighted his plan to repeal Social Security taxes during the campaign, sharing a campaign video on social media Monday that claimed the ex-president “will make sure no one cuts Medicare or Social Security.” The left also attacked Trump for his views on Social Security, putting up billboards in Asheville, North Carolina, in August targeting Trump on Social Security as he was scheduled to give a speech there on the economy. The billboards claimed that Trump plans to “cut funding, leave seniors behind, and cut taxes for the ultra-wealthy,” according to The Hill, and coincided with the anniversary of the signing of the Social Security Act in 1935.

Read more

What to know about Kamala Harris’ economic agenda as she announces new proposals for Black men (Forbes)

What would Trump’s campaign plans mean for Social Security? (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)

Donald Trump’s suggestion to end taxation of Social Security benefits (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)

Exempting social security benefits from income tax is unsound and fiscally irresponsible (Tax Foundation)

How Would Donald Trump and Kamala Harris Change Your Taxes? Here’s what you need to know. (Forbes)