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Victor Wembanyama’s regression explained: This is why Spurs’ rising star’s scoring stats have dropped
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Victor Wembanyama’s regression explained: This is why Spurs’ rising star’s scoring stats have dropped

Expectations were sky high for Victor Wembanyama entering his second season, and he met them on the defensive end of the floor.

Spurs have improved from their No. 21 defense to No. 10 in the league, thanks in large part to his impact at the Defensive Player of the Year level. He is averaging a league-best 3.7 blocks per game, along with 1.6 steals. He has also had some nice moments, such as his second five-on-five match of his career.

On the other side of the court it was a different story. Through nine games, Wembanyama is shooting just 41.3 percent from the field and 22.6 percent from 3. His 17.7 points per game is 3.7 points worse than his rookie year.

This shouldn’t have happened when the Spurs brought in veteran point guard Chris Paul, but there’s no arguing that Wemby has regressed as an offensive player.

Here’s what’s behind the rising star’s struggles.

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Victor Wembanyama’s regression explained

Wembanyama settles for far too many threes

Wembanyama shoots a high percentage of shots inside the three-point line, hitting 56.6 percent of his twos, but he is terrible as a three-point shooter.

Wembanyama is capable of hitting logo 3s and other cool jump shots. That should be a last resort, and not something he uses early in the day. As a rookie, he hit just 32.5 percent of his 3s and this season, that’s down to 22.6 percent.

He lets the defense loose when he launches it like this with 17 seconds left on the shot clock:

Those controversial early bell 3s happen far too often. Wembanyama’s 6.9 3s per game ranks 39th in the league. He launches more than good shooters like Austin Reaves, Mikal Bridges and Desmond Bane. He has said he wants to model his game after Kevin Durant, but Durant is a much better shooter who takes fewer shots from deep.

Until Wemby can hit a league-average 36 percent on those shots, he’ll have to stick to the wide-open shots.

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Wembanyama needs to be more aggressive inside

Wembanyama is a 7-4 giant, but he doesn’t always play like that.

Teams have started putting smaller players on him, and he hasn’t been able to punish those mismatches. The Thunder had 6-4 guard Alex Caruso as its main defenseman, and Wembanyama was completely neutralized in that game. He let Caruso off the hook by bricking 3s against him, and got it stripped when he tried to drive it. Dillon Brooks and Klay Thompson also held their own in other matches. Instead of taking it in, Wembanyama settled for extremely closely contested fadeaways against smaller players.

When the Spurs move to get him deep catches near the basket, he is simply unstoppable. His arms are so long that he can reach the rim before a play is even possible.

Wembanyama needs to get these types of deep seals more often, and his teammates need to find him more often. Part of the problem is that even though Wemby added five pounds of muscle during the offseason, he still has the frame of a winger. He can be pushed out of place. Another part is that even with Paul, Spurs still aren’t looking for him enough.

Wembanyama has the longest arms in the competition. It shouldn’t be that hard to get him the ball to the basket.

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Things should improve for Wembanyama

Wembanyama won’t be a bad scorer all season and Spurs are going to make some changes to their rotation that should help him.

Devin Vassell will make his season debut on Saturday, opening the door for Wembanyama. Vassell is a 36.9 percent 3-point shooter who posted the second-highest number of assists at Wembanyama last season behind Tre Jones, who has played in just one game this season due to an ankle injury.

Jeremy Sochan’s thumb injury could also be a blessing in disguise for Wembanyama. Sochan had an offensive breakthrough, averaging a career-high 15.4 points per game in his third year, but those points are mostly in the paint, clogging that area for Wembanyama. Teams have focused their attention on Sochan because he is a poor shooter. That has led to a big man lurking in the paint when Wemby gets the ball.

Aside from the improved fit, it’s ultimately up to Wembanyama to make better decisions. It’s easy to forget that he’s only 20 years old, and he hasn’t quite figured out where the best spots on the floor are for him yet. He’ll get there eventually, but Spurs are feeling the growing pains for now.