In another big SEC battle that could have major implications for the College Football Playoff, the 11th-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide visits the No. 14 LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge on Saturday night.

Alabama was ranked No. 11 in the first CFP rankings released Tuesday, while LSU was ranked No. 15 outside.

Both teams are 6-2 overall, but LSU has the edge in the SEC standings and is 3-1 in conference play with Alabama at 3-2. The Tigers had won six in a row before suffering a 38-23 loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago in a game dominated in the second half by the Aggies. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide defeated Missouri 34-0 in their most recent game two Saturdays ago.

As things stand going into their Week 11 matchup, LSU is 10-1 to win the SEC and Alabama is 20-1. Georgia (+160) and Texas (2-1) lead the way in terms of odds. Despite the current SEC lead, LSU is 50-1 to win the national championship (and +190 to make the CFP), while Alabama is 18-1 (-140).

Kickoff is Saturday at 7:30 PM ET on ABC/ESPN+.

Odds current as of publication time, courtesy of ESPN BET

The lines

Spread: Alabama -3
Moneyline: Alabama -145, LSU +125
Top/bottom: 58.5 (over -105/under -115)

Distribution over the first half: Alabama -1.5 (-105), LSU +1.5 (-115)
Moneyline first half: Alabama -135, LSU +105
Total points first half: 27.5 (over -115/under -105)

Maldonado’s pick: No. 11 Alabama -3 (-105) at No. 14 LSU

Alabama’s defense is a pickpocket on game day, always in position to swipe the ball. The significant improvement in turnover margin and ball security could be a critical factor against LSU on Saturday night.

Entering Week 11, Alabama sits fifth in team rankings, a dramatic improvement from last season when it ranked 63rd in the country. The Crimson Tide defense has been extremely effective as of late, allowing ten points in the last three games. By contrast, LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has thrown seven interceptions in his last four starts despite only being pressured on 24% of his dropbacks this season.

In what is expected to be a close game, this trend – if it continues – is a potential deciding factor. Alabama’s ability to protect the ball and create takeaways could give the Tide the advantage in controlling time of possession and field position. Against an LSU team that struggles on defense, especially against big plays, winning the turnover battle would be a boon for Alabama to cover the three-point spread.

Alabama features some of the best defensive backs in the country, including Domani Jackson, Malachi Moore and Keon Sabb. Their collective versatility, athleticism and coverage skills make Alabama’s football secondary a disruptive force in college football.

LSU’s offensive predictability could also lead to turnovers. The Tigers lack a strong ground game and rank 110th in rushing offense success rate. That means less pressure on Alabama’s front seven, which had previously struggled with mobile quarterbacks and effective run games. With the Tigers relying heavily on passing (61% passing play percentage, fifth highest in the country), Alabama’s defense can focus on defending the aerial attack, allowing the Tide to tailor their defensive strategy more effectively. LSU’s pass-heavy approach could create more interception opportunities, which fits well with Alabama’s “Swarm Defense” philosophy, which emphasizes creating turnovers.

With LSU’s struggling run game, Nussmeier often finds himself in situations where he feels like he has to “stand on his crazy head” and make big plays through the air, as coach Brian Kelly said after the season-opening loss to USC , which led to forced throws in tight coverage.

Some of his interceptions have come when LSU was behind and trying to mount a comeback, forcing riskier throws. If the Tigers find themselves playing from behind and exhibiting a bit of a fumble-and-stumble approach to ball security lately, the Tide could close out this game by taking advantage of turnover opportunities.

Betting Trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• LSU is 3-1 outright as a home underdog under Brian Kelly (6-2 outright in the last eight overall as a home underdog).

• Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last four trips to Baton Rouge; the only non-coverage was the most recent trip in 2022.

• Alabama is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, while the spread is between +3 and -3 (opened Alabama spread -2.5).

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