The BYU-Utah rivalry is back. For the first time since 2010, the Cougars and Utes will face off as conference foes in a game with conference title implications. No. 9 BYU sits alone in first place in the Big 12 and the Cougars control their own destiny for the College Football Playoff. The Utes, on the other hand, are desperate to end their four-game losing streak. Here is our score prediction for the rivalry game.

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff has gone from a contentious quarterback battle in fall camp to the face of the program. Retzlaff has continued to improve as the season has progressed. He faces his toughest test of the season so far on the road in Utah. Retzlaff will have to take care of the football while finding opportunities to create chunk play. Long, sustained drives against this Utah defense will be difficult to pull off. Retzlaff will need to create some big plays, as he has done all season.

BYU running back LJ Martin will play a crucial role in this game. If BYU wants to move the ball consistently, they need Martin to be effective on the floor. Historically, Utah has always been good against the run. This year they weren’t as dominant. The Utes rank 59th in yards allowed per carry. If BYU can establish some semblance of a rushing attack, it will create play-action opportunities for Jake Retzlaff.

The BYU defense against Utah’s offense is the mismatch of the game. BYU’s defense was one of the best nationally at taking the ball away, while Utah was one of the worst offenses when it came to protecting the football. The data suggests BYU should force a turnover or two in this game. The question will be whether Utah has the offensive firepower to make up for that or not. Over the past four games, Utah’s offense has been one of the worst nationally. Maybe a quarterback change could give them a spark. If BYU wins the turnover margin by two or more, this game could get out of hand.

Taking advantage of scoring opportunities will be key in this game. Utah’s defense is one of the best redzone defenses in the country, while BYU’s offense has been good at converting scoring opportunities all season. If BYU makes too many field goals, Utah could be left hanging in this game.

I expect Utah’s offense to improve after a week of rest. The Utes will likely try some new options, starting with incorporating the quarterback into the run game. I also expect Utah to be very aggressive on defense to try to force Jake Retzlaff into mistakes. If Retzlaff can pre-diagnose a few things and take advantage of Utah’s aggressiveness, there should be opportunities for chunk play.

I can’t imagine a scenario where Utah’s offense can string together multiple long, sustained drives. Over the past two games, Utah’s offense has produced just two touchdown drives of more than 30 yards. Both touchdowns came on explosive plays. BYU will prevent Utah’s offense from scoring if they prevent big plays, and we think that will be the case.

These games are weird, so we predict a less traditional score. BYU wins by double digits for the first time since 1996.

Utah 16 | BYU 26